World First Debt-for-Climate Resilience Swap, UK Adaptation Plan Challenge Redux, AI Weather Forecaster, and More

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Barbados completed the world’s first debt-for-climate resilience transaction, freeing up US$125mn to invest in water and sewage infrastructure, food security, and environmental protection.

The deal allows the Caribbean island to retire US$293.3mn of outstanding debt using a sustainability-linked loan struck with CIBC Caribbean Bank, Scotiabank (Barbados), and RBC Royal Bank (Barbados). The loan is backed by a US$300mn guarantee from the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the European Investment Bank (EIB).

IDB President Ilan Goldfajn called it “an important milestone” and said the deal could be replicated in other jurisdictions. “This is impact at scale with innovation and partnership at work,” he said. 

The lower interest rate Barbados will pay under the debt swap should generate US$125mn in savings that the country will channel into adaptation and resilience projects. One such project is the overhaul of the South Coast sewage treatment plant, with the aim of producing water for irrigation and groundwater recharge purposes. The souped-up plant has the potential to more than double water availability in the country by 2050. 

Barbados is one of the world’s most water-scarce countries, with an average per capita water availability four times less than the global average.

Under the terms of the loan, Barbados could incur financial penalties if it misses sustainability targets linked to the volume and quality of water reclaimed by this plant. These would be paid into a special trust for environmental investments.

Off the back of the debt swap, the Green Climate Fund is granting an additional US$40mn to Barbados to invest in adaptation measures.

Donor countries helped the World Bank reach its US$100bn finance target for poor nations following meetings in Seoul, South Korea, in a boost to global climate funding.

States agreed to contribute US$23.7bn to the International Development Association (IDA) — the World Bank Group’s lending arm — which can be leveraged to unlock billions more through capital markets borrowing and blended finance structures with private investors, among other means.

While the amount pledged by the IDA’s donor base, which is made up of 59 countries, was a little more than that given during the last replenishment cycle, it is below the US$30bn that World Bank President Ajay Banga was hoping for. Still, Banga praised donor countries “unwavering support” for the World Bank’s mission in an open letter posted Thursday.

The IDA has deployed US$270bn over the last ten years, of which US$85bn has been concessional climate financing. Half of this amount has been for climate adaptation, Banga wrote.

The US Department of the Interior announced an US$849mn investment to modernize water infrastructure across 11 Western states as part of President Biden’s Investing in America agenda. The funding will support 77 projects aimed at improving water storage, transportation, and treatment, and boosting hydropower generation. This effort is part of a broader strategy to address a historic 24-year drought in the Colorado River Basin and strengthen water resilience in Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, and other affected states. (US Department of the Interior)

Canada has announced over CAD$2.6mn (US$1.8mn) in funding for seven climate-proofing projects in the Prairies region, as part of Natural Resources Canada’s Climate Change Adaptation Program (CCAP). The projects aim to help rural and Indigenous communities acquire the tools, training, and resources they need to combat extreme weather shocks and slow-onset events, like permafrost thaw. (Government of Canada)

The first week of hearings in the largest climate case in history saw countries offer starkly different views on rich nations’ culpability for extreme weather shocks.

The International Court of Justice (ICJ), the UN’s highest court, is fielding arguments on states’ legal obligations to fight climate change from around 100 countries. These will help the Court to draft an advisory opinion on what countries have to do under international law to protect the climate, and what the legal consequences are for governments whose actions — or lack thereof — have contributed to climate harm.

The Court’s decision could fuel future climate lawsuits and shape how global negotiations on adaptation, resilience, and loss and damage proceed.

In his opening address on December 2, Ralph Regenvanu — Climate Envoy for the Republic of Vanuatu, which spearheaded the case — told the Court that this “may well be the most consequential case in the history of humanity.”

“We look to the Court for recognition that the conduct which has already caused immense harm to my people and so many others is unlawful, that it must cease, and that its consequences must be repaired,” he said.

Regenvanu added that responsibility for climate risks lie with “a handful of readily identifiable states” that have polluted the atmosphere for generations.

However, last Wednesday, the US — one of the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters — said its legal obligations to fight climate change started and finished with the 2015 Paris Agreement. This treaty “embodies the clearest, most specific, and the most current expression of states’ consent to be bound by international law in respect of climate change,” said Margaret Taylor, legal adviser at the US State Department before the ICJ.

Climate advocates put the US on blast for this argument. “It was really ironic today to hear the US uphold the Paris Agreement so loudly and clearly,” said Rachel Cleetus, Policy Director for the Climate and Energy Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists. “And yet, the track record has been a series of attempts to undermine the goals of that agreement.”

The hearings end on December 13. Written statements from countries and organizations on the case have been made available on the ICJ’s website.

As leaders gather in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia to discuss ways to fight desertification, a new scientific report argues that unsustainable land practices are undermining climate resilience by exacerbating soil erosion, depleting freshwater resources, and reducing crop yields.

“Land ecosystems are critical for the continued resilience of the Earth system in the face of increasing anthropogenic impacts,” the report reads. “International bodies and governments at all levels should lead the way by formulating, implementing, and enforcing policies that support responsible governance, strategic investment and accessible finance for sustainable land use,” it adds.

The report calls on leaders to enact policies that halt land degradation, scale up nature-based solutions (NbS), support ongoing research and data gathering, increase investment in sustainable land use, and implement frameworks to “inform and guide transformative land-based actions.”

The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD COP16), taking place in the Saudi capital through December 13, looks to win global agreement on ways to strengthen drought resilience and slow desertification worldwide. Today, around 40% of the world’s land is degraded, according to UN figures, affecting three billion people. 

Part of the challenge fighting back against land degradation is a lack of finance. UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed says cumulative investments have to hit US$2.6trn by 2030 — the same amount the world spent on defense in 2023. As things stand, only a fraction of this amount is going where it is needed, with just US$66bn invested in 2022. The private sector makes up just 6% of land degradation financing commitments.

The UNCCD was agreed to by 196 countries and the European Union back in 1994. This is the sixteenth Conference of the Parties (COP16) under the convention.

Two climate activists and the nonprofit group Friends of the Earth are appealing the UK High Court’s decision to throw out their lawsuit against the government’s “inadequate” climate adaptation plans.

Plaintiffs Kevin Jordan, Doug Paulley, and Friends of the Earth claim that the country’s National Adaptation Programme does not account for the rights of older and disabled people and fails to meet the standard laid out in the 2008 Climate Change Act.

Their initial legal challenge was dismissed by Judge Justice Chamberlain in October.

Friends of the Earth argue that Chamberlain was wrong to conclude that the Climate Change Act allows the government to set “non-specific and unmeasurable adaptation objectives”, and that a risk assessment covering potential adaptation policy failures was not legally required.

Plaintiff Kevin Jordan lost his home on the Norfolk coastline one year ago. When he bought the property 15 years ago, he was told it would be climate-proof for decades.   

“The government’s climate adaptation plan is seriously inadequate and unless it is massively improved, communities across the country will be at risk from our rapidly changing weather,” he said.  

A decision on whether to allow the appeal is expected in 2-3 months’ time, says Friends of the Earth.

A new study reveals that natural disasters, rather than uniting public opinion on climate change, are deepening ideological divides. Following disasters, liberal respondents to an academic survey showed a 1.4-2.6 percentage point increase in climate change concerns relative to their pre-disaster baseline. In contrast, conservatives become less concerned by 2.5-2.6 percentage points. This translates to a partisan gap of 11%. The study highlights how media narratives drive this divergence, with liberal outlets linking disasters to climate change, while conservative outlets downplay the connection. Policymakers are cautioned that post-disaster awareness campaigns may backfire, especially in areas with ideologically charged media coverage. (Centre for Economic Policy Research)

Boston has secured a US$9.8mn grant through President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act to develop a climate-ready workforce. The funds will be used to train over 1,200 workers for roles in green infrastructure, water system reliability, flood protection, and emergency response, with a focus on equity and job placement for underrepresented communities. (City of Boston)

A new AI tool from Google claims to provide accurate 15-day weather forecasts, blowing past long-held predictability limits and opening the door to more useful early warning systems for those at risk from climate shocks.

GenCast, a creation of Google’s AI-focused DeepMind division, is built on the same type of model that powers the current generation of chatbots, including Google’s own Gemini. To make it fit-for-purpose, GenCast was trained on 40 years of historical weather data at a 0.25° resolution, equivalent to around 28 square kilometers.

Google tested its model against predictions made by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ENS, another probabilistic forecasting tool, and found GenCast was more accurate in 97.2% of cases, and in 99.8% when lead times were greater than 36 hours.

“More accurate forecasts of risks of extreme weather can help officials safeguard more lives, avert damage, and save money,” a Google blog showcasing GenCast reads. “When we tested GenCast’s ability to predict extreme heat and cold, and high wind speeds, GenCast consistently outperformed ENS.”

Google says it will be releasing the model’s code, weights, and forecasts, to benefit the weather forecasting community.

One of the world’s largest insurers has launched a climate risk tool to help businesses, city governments, and public bodies gauge their exposure to climate risks and prepare appropriate resilience strategies.

Climate Spotlight, the brainchild of Zurich Resilience Solutions, a unit of Zurich Insurance Group, comprises two products: the first, a self-serve dashboard that can be used to identify climate risks to specific locations, and the second, a “fully customizable climate risk analysis” suite powered by Zurich’s own in-house experts. Data and projections are available for four different climate scenarios out to the year 2100.

The tool is designed to help users cook up effective climate risk management strategies and populate climate-related financial disclosures, like those required under the European Union’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD).

New York State has launched a US$10mn program to support clean heating and cooling technology in large buildings. The funds will empower manufacturers to create and test energy-efficient heat pumps that reduce emissions, improve air quality, and ease strains on the electrical grid. The idea is that these technologies can be installed in multifamily buildings, senior living residences, and hotels throughout the state without the need for expensive in-building electrical upgrades. The deadline for manufacturers to apply is February 20, 2025, and another for building demonstration sites will be sometime in early 2025. (New York State)

The International Rice Research Institute and the Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services launched the Climate-Smart Mapping and Adaptation Planning (CS-MAP) tool in Bangladesh to boost food security and climate resilience. Part of the CGIAR Initiative on Asian Mega-Deltas, CS-MAP integrates scientific research and local expertise to map climate risks across 10 districts in Bangladesh’s coastal region and develop custom adaptation strategies for sustainable agriculture. (CGIAR)

Coastal hardening and what it means for the world’s sandy beaches (Nature Communications)

The role of insurers in driving post-hurricane risk reduction investments (npj Natural Hazards)

How well do climate modes explain precipitation variability? (npj Climate and Atmospheric Science)

The rate of global sea level rise doubled during the past three decades (Communications Earth & Environment)

A conceptual framework for responding to cross-border climate change impacts (SEI)

Opportunities and options for enhancing adaptation action through education and training, and public and youth participation – Technical paper (UNFCCC)

Building coastal resilience with mangroves: The contribution of natural flood defenses to the changing wealth of nations (World Bank Group)

Thanks for reading!

Louie Woodall
Editor