California Adopts Wildfire Models for Insurers, EU Climate Resilience Initiative, Google's 'Virtual Satellite', and More

Insurers in California can now use catastrophe modeling to gauge wildfire hazards and set rates, as part of a regulatory push to expand insurance coverage and stabilize pricing.

Using these tools, carriers are permitted to charge policyholders in line with their wildfire exposure and vulnerability — bringing pricing in line with risk. In return, they have to write at least 85% of their statewide market share in fire-prone areas.

The regulatory shift is part of a reform package developed by Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara to put the state’s insurance market on a sustainable footing. “Under existing regulations, insurers have raised rates without guaranteeing coverage or committing to Californians, causing distress for homeowners. That ends now,” said Lara in a press release.

So far, only one wildfire model has been approved for use, created by Verisk — a tech and data provider to the insurance industry. This offers a forward-looking view of wildfire risk, which factors in the effects of a changing climate. Wildfire models from Karen Clark and Company and Moody’s are also currently being reviewed by the California Insurance Department.

Previously, California insurers had to use historical data to set future rates, which caused premiums to surge in the aftermath of wildfire disasters and insurers to flee from risk-prone areas. Data from CAL FIRE shows that between 1991 and 2015, California saw just four fires that destroyed more than 1,000 buildings each. Since 2015, there have been 15 major fires that have destroyed 55,528 buildings.

While forward-looking models may cause rate increases in some areas, they should also take into account wildfire hardening measures taken by homeowners — like clearing vegetation or adding fire-resistant cladding — and stabilize premiums for those taking these actions.

By forcing insurers to cover fire-prone areas of California, the department hopes to increase the options available to homeowners and relieve pressure on the FAIR Plan, the state’s insurer-of-last-resort. The FAIR Plan had over US$4bn in exposure to the Los Angeles fires earlier this year, and had to be bailed out by Commissioner Lara in February.

Natural disasters caused an estimated US$131bn in global losses in the first half of 2025, well above the long-term average, according to Munich Re. Global insurers covered a record US$80bn of damage — the second-highest first-half payout since 1980. The costliest event was January’s Los Angeles wildfires, which racked up US$53bn in costs, US$40bn of which were insured. Severe convective storms across the US added another US$34bn in losses, of which US$26bn were insured. Other notable events included a massive Alpine landslide in Switzerland, Cyclone Alfred’s record southern track in Australia, and hailstorms in France, Austria and Germany. Munich Re warns that climate change is amplifying weather-related disasters and urged stronger building codes, restrictions on high-risk development, and other preventive measures to contain future losses and insurance costs. (Munich Re)

Brazil is seeking to mobilize nearly US$4bn for climate-focused projects from global investors, according to Reuters, in a major green finance push ahead of hosting COP30 in November. State development bank BNDES will seed the effort with 5 billion reais (US$906mn) and tap asset managers including Brookfield and TPG to raise triple that amount, targeting sectors from forest conservation to wind and solar power. Asset managers are expected to submit proposals by October, with funding deployment slated for mid-2026. (Reuters)

The UN Environment Programme Finance Initiative has released detailed guidance to help banks integrate climate adaptation and resilience into their core lending and investment operations and client engagements. The report urges lenders to assess physical climate risks across portfolios, align strategies with public policy such as National Adaptation Plans, and introduce innovative adaptation and resilience financing products. (UNEP FI)

Utility PG&E has awarded US$400,000 in Resilience Hubs Grants to seven community organizations in Northern and Central California, capping a five-year, $2 million program aimed at bolstering local climate preparedness. The grants are funded by PG&E shareholders, and make up part of the company’s statewide investment in wildfire resiliency. The Hubs offer power, shelter, and resources to local populations seeking shelter during extreme weather and other emergencies. The latest awardees are using the funds to support projects ranging from solar and battery backup power systems in Contra Costa County to HVAC retrofits in Oakland’s Chinatown. (PG&E)

European Union lawmakers are working on a unified playbook for managing climate risks and injecting resilience into public spending and policy decisions.

The sweeping “European climate resilience and risk management initiative”, launching in 2026, will feature legislative and non-legislative measures to strengthen preparedness, harmonize risk assessments, and embed “resilience by design” in investments vulnerable to climate impacts. A public call for evidence to shape the initiative launched at the end of July.

The new initiative will build on the 2021 EU Adaptation Strategy, and draw on learnings from the European Climate Risk Assessment, which identified 36 distinct climate shocks to the continent. It will be led by Commissioner Hoekstra, the European Commissioner responsible for climate, net zero and clean growth.

Part of the initiative will be focused on breaking down barriers hindering climate preparedness across the EU. These include financial and market failures — like the shortage of funding for adaptation measures — regulatory obstacles, knowledge gaps, and behavioral challenges, like climate denialism and short-termism in policy and planning.

Expected innovations under the initiative include the development of common reference scenarios for gauging risks, enhanced planning and adaptation implementation approaches, and increased support for new markets in resilience technologies, insurance, and infrastructure.

The public call for evidence is open until September 4.

The International Court of Justice’s landmark climate opinion is reshaping legal fights between governments, corporations, and activists. The World Court said failing to cut greenhouse gas emissions could constitute an internationally wrongful act, declared national climate plans must align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target, and asserted that states are responsible for their fair share of historical emissions — even those outside the UN climate treaty. Already, the opinion is being deployed in courtrooms around the world. In Ireland, lawyers for a windfarm shared copies with the Irish Supreme Court, which is considering whether planning permits for turbines should weigh climate impacts over concerns about changing rural vistas. The opinion may also play a role in Bonaire vs the Netherlands, a case arguing that the latter’s climate plan is not doing enough to protect the former from encroaching seas. (Reuters)

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) formally proposed rescinding the 2009 endangerment finding, the legal basis for the bulk of US climate regulations, after Administrator Lee Zeldin floated the move earlier in July. Abolishing the finding would dismantle a swathe of rules covering vehicle tailpipe emissions, coal- and gas-fired power plants, and methane emissions from oil fields. Scientists say it could also imperil Americans by spurring increased greenhouse gas production, leading to more frequent and severe extreme weather events. EPA officials argue the rollback will save US$54bn annually and cut more than US$1trn in cumulative compliance costs. (US Environmental Protection Agency)

The US Department of Energy published a report re-evaluating greenhouse gas impacts to the US environment and economy that runs counter to long-running scientific consensus. Written by five climate skeptics, the report argues that widely used climate models run “hot” — and therefore overestimate the likely impacts of continued emissions — and that observed US data show no long-term trends in most extreme weather events. Moreover, the authors argue that adaptation has, and will continue to, soften climate impacts to public health and to the US agricultural sector. Climate scientists say the report misrepresents and cherry-picks research on global warming.  (Department of Energy)

The US Defense Department will continue supplying the National Weather Service and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) with key hurricane-tracking data from its Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMI) satellite program, reversing an earlier announcement that the data would stop flowing from the end of July. The US Navy said data-sharing would continue until the instrument fails or the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program ends in September 2026. The low-Earth orbit sensors penetrate clouds to reveal the internal structure of tropical cyclones — providing insights not matched by other satellites — and are vital for pinpointing storm centers and improving forecast models, particularly at night or over open water. (ABC News)

Google has launched AlphaEarth Foundations, an AI model that can map the planet “at any place and time”, according to research engineer Christopher Brown. The tech could be harnessed to analyze how ecosystems are transforming, track water resources, and identify locations for climate-resilient construction, among other adaptation imperatives.

The model, a spin-off of Google DeepMind, the company’s AI division, works by weaving together petabytes of satellite data, 3D laser mapping, climate scenarios, and more from various public sources. This information is then translated into a “unified digital representation” — called an “embedding” — which makes it easy for computer systems to navigate. The end result is a highly detailed portrayal of the Earth’s land and coastal waters at 10x10 meter square resolution. Google calls it a “virtual satellite”.

Each square can be represented using 16x less information than the next-most compact AI method, making the data fast to navigate and cheaper to store. Google claims it is also 23.9% less error-prone than similar models. “This breakthrough enables scientists to do something that was impossible until now: create detailed, consistent maps of our world, on-demand,” Google says.

AlphaEarth has been piloted by more than 50 organizations over the past year, including the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization, Stanford University, and Global Ecosystems Atlas. The latter is leveraging the AI model to help countries map unexplored ecosystems, so they can better prioritize conservation areas and improve restoration efforts.

“I can’t see a single vertical of geospatial AlphaEarth won’t influence,” Tee Barr, Director of Product, Geospatial, at risk modeler Verisk, told Climate Proof. “This is a massive leap forward for earth observation, geospatial intelligence, and climate resilience.”

India and the US have launched NISAR (NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar), a US$1.5bn earth observation satellite capable of mapping nearly all of the Earth’s land and ice twice every 12 days, detecting surface shifts as small as a centimeter and penetrating clouds to deliver continuous coverage. With two radar instruments — an L-band system and an S-band system — NISAR will monitor infrastructure stability, crop health, glacier shifts, and more. Its capabilities promise to sharpen disaster response and long-term resilience planning worldwide. (NASA)

BENEO, a German food supplier, has teamed up with the NGO Rikolto and climate-tech firm CarbonFarm for a €800,000 (US$925,000), three-year push to scale sustainable rice farming in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta. Funded by the Government of Flanders, the project will train 1,000 farmers in Sustainable Rice Platform (SRP) standards. These include guidance on efficient water management and smart use of pesticides and fertilizers, which can improve the climate-resilience of crops without hurting yields. Satellite monitoring and digital logbooks will track farming practices, and precisely measure emissions and water usage. BENEO will develop markets for SRP-certified rice ingredients processed at its Belgian facility. The first harvest is expected in autumn 2025, with at least 10,000 tonnes of sustainable rice to be processed over the project’s life. (BENEO)

EarthDaily Analytics, a Canadian earth observation company, has secured US$60mn from Trinity Capital to finance the completion of its 10-satellite EarthDaily Constellation. The system will deliver daily, high-resolution imagery fused with AI-driven analytics for asset monitoring, risk management, and environmental change detection. (Trinity Capital)

Adaptation strategies to waterlogging among coastal farmers in Bangladesh: Practices, determinants, and implications for resilient agriculture (Climate Services)

Climate change drives shifts in straddling fish stocks in the world’s ocean (Science Advances)

Scenario based land use simulation for climate adaptability in coastal urban agglomerations of Guangdong Hong Kong and Macao Bay area (Scientific Reports)

Addressing climate change impacts on food supply chain operations: An integrated framework for sustainable optimization (Journal of Supply Chain Management Science)

Impact of flash droughts on global crop yields considering crop phenology and irrigation conditions (Agricultural and Forest Meteorology)

How to scale private finance for adaptation and unlock new business opportunities (International Chamber of Commerce)

From words to deeds — incorporating climate risks into sovereign credit ratings (European Central Bank)

Thanks for reading!

Louie Woodall
Editor