Climate Finance Goal Deadlock, Biden Invests in Grid Resilience, Helene's Threat to Tech, and More

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Today in Climate Proof:

Finance:

• Pre-COP Climate Finance Talks Fail to Bring Consensus

• UK Climate Finance Forum Debuts Plan for Unlocking Adaptation Funds

Policy:

• Following Hurricanes, Biden Announces Grid Resilience Investment 

• US Flood Maps Under Fire Post-Helene

• UK Climate Change Committee Gets New Chief

Tech:

• Hurricane Helene Could Hobble Silicon Production

• Zillow Adds Climate Risk Label to Home Listings

Research:

• Another round-up of papers and journal articles on all things climate adaptation

Pre-COP Climate Finance Talks Fail to Bring Consensus

Negotiations over a new international climate finance goal ran aground at pre-COP29 meetings in Baku last week. 

Ministers and climate leaders in the Azerbaijani capital gathered to discuss the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), the successor arrangement to the current US$100bn-per-year target that expires at the end of 2024.

However, scant progress was made by delegates at the conflab, Agence France-Presse reports. Countries have yet to settle on a dollar amount for the new goal and remain divided on how the financing should be structured.

“A new finance goal is the most important outcome that must be agreed at COP29,” wrote Mariana Paoli, Global Advocacy Lead at Christian Aid, who attended the meetings, on LinkedIn. “But only a few weeks away, some key issues remain unresolved, underscoring the lack of consensus on most key NCQG elements including quality, quantum, structure, sources and timeframes.”

Christian Aid and over 100 over NGOs are urging NCQG negotiators to adopt a goal that includes a public finance provision target of at least US$1trn per year in grants and grant-equivalents.

As things stand, countries are at loggerheads on how much should be targeted. A recent discussion paper included options ranging from a US$100bn floor to at least US$1.3trn per year. Some of the proposed packages include dedicated sub-goals for adaptation, mitigation, and Loss and Damage.

The composition of the NCQG also remains a sticking point. Rich countries are pushing for a layered structure, made up of a thin foundation of public finance supplemented by a thicker slab of private finance mobilization.

European ministers are championing this model. Last Tuesday, the EU Council signed off on the bloc’s approach to the NCQG which stresses “the importance of an integrated multi-layered approach”, with public finance at its core and mobilization of additional finance “from a wide variety of sources, instruments and channels.”

The US is also in favor of a multilayered structure. Speaking at the meetings last Wednesday, US Climate Envoy John Podesta said the amount of climate finance needed “is well above US$1trn”, an amount that includes an “outer layer” made up of all kinds of public and private investment and a “support goal” or “inner layer” of international public finance.

“The inner layer should be ambitious, and stretch parties as the UD$100bn goal did, but it also has to be realistically achievable,” said Podesta.

UK Climate Finance Forum Debuts Plan for Unlocking Adaptation Funds

Patchy data, a lack of clarity on future climate scenarios, and a dearth of investment opportunities are among the obstacles stymying efforts to scale adaptation finance in the UK, a new report from regulators and financial institutions says.

The UK’s Climate Financial Risk Forum (CFRF) Adaptation Working Group identified five main challenges over the course of a comprehensive fact-finding mission this year, and proposed a host of recommendations to accelerate adaptation action.

Chief among them is the adoption of an Aim-Build-Contingency (ABC) framework for assessing climate physical risk and planning appropriate responses. This requires institutions to first identify at-risk assets and timelines for analysis. Then, they should make assumptions about how the physical risks they face vary under high, medium, and low future emissions scenarios. Next, a “global climate response variable” should be applied to account for risk mitigation efforts. Finally, local data should be layered on to understand the physical risk and response effects on the chosen assets.

‘Aim-Build-Contingency’ (ABC) Framework

The CFRF says this framework should be recommended by banks and asset managers to their clients and investees as a way to build more climate-resilient portfolios.

Other recommendations include having financial institutions create and disclose “adaptation-inclusive” transition plans. These would serve to foreground climate risks and opportunities — including opportunities related to adaptation and resilience — for banks and investors.

Beyond the financial sector, the report also recommends that climate resilience be fully incorporated into “all existing regulatory bodies” including those for water, energy, telecoms, transport, the natural environment, and land.

Other Stuff

Assessing the IMF’s Climate Facility: The first two years (Center for Global Development)

UK international climate finance results 2024 (UK Government)

Catastrophe bonds dodge worst-case scenario after Milton (Bloomberg)

Biden-Harris Administration, NOAA announce US$15.3mn to improve climate projections of extreme weather (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

IFC invests in Equator Africa Fund I to support African climate sector tech businesses (International Finance Corporation)

France extends US$54mn credit line and a €675,000 grant dedicated to foster low-carbon and climate-resilient growth in Pakistan (Agence Française de Développement)

Asian Development Bank approves support to strengthen coastal protection in India (ADB)

The state of pre-arranged financing for disasters (Center for Disaster Protection)

Distributive justice in Bangladesh’s climate finance: challenges and recommendations for policy takeaways (Center for Participatory Research & Development) 

Following Hurricanes, Biden Announces Grid Resilience Investment 

President Biden announced over US$612mn for hardening electric grids in communities impacted by Hurricanes Milton and Helene.

In statements to the press during a trip to St. Pete Beach, Florida, on Sunday, Biden said that six “cutting-edge projects” would be funded to “make the region’s power system stronger and more capable and reduce the frequency and duration of power outages.” The package includes US$47mn for Gainesville Regional Utilities and another US$47mn for Florida Power & Light.

In remarks after the president’s announcement, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said that the administration had already allocated millions to grid resiliency projects nationwide through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, including US$680mn for those states that have recently been affected by hurricanes.

Projects already underway include the undergrounding of power lines, the raising of substations facing flooding, and installation of technologies that identify blackouts before they happen.

US Flood Maps Under Fire Post-Helene

Maps used by the US government to identify flood-risk areas underestimated the scale of inundation caused by Hurricane Helene in North Carolina, The Washington Post reports. 

Analysis conducted by the paper and First Street, a climate risk modeling firm, found that just 2% of properties in western North Carolina’s mountainous counties were marked as Special Flood Hazard Areas in Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) maps. These are places the agency believes are susceptible to a 1-in-100 year flood event. Homeowners in these areas are forced to buy flood insurance if they want a federally-backed mortgage.

First Street data suggests the actual number of properties at risk could be seven times higher than what the FEMA flood maps show.

FEMA reviews flood maps on a five-year cycle, though they are not always updated if the past data holds up. Moreover, the maps do not factor in likely future climate change-induced conditions — like heavier rainfalls or higher storms surge. 

Earlier this year, the White House called on Congress to clarify FEMA’s mapping function, expand its ability to collect and maintain flood hazard and flood risk information, and produce flood risk information that includes future climate projections.

UK Climate Change Committee Gets New Chief

Emma Pinchbeck has been appointed the new Chief Executive Officer of the UK’s Climate Change Committee (CCC), the independent body that advises the government on its climate mitigation and adaptation efforts.

Pinchbeck joins from Energy UK, the trade association for the country’s energy industry. She will assume her new role on November 11. As the new chief, she will oversee the CCC’s next independent assessment of climate risks facing the UK, slated for publication in 2026, as well as the Seventh UK Carbon Budget next year.

In addition, she provides oversight to the CCC’s various internal groups, including the Adaptation Committee, which advises the government on climate risks and opportunities and measures the progress of the National Adaptation Programme in England.

“Emma has demonstrated a real knowledge and understanding of the broader climate landscape, as well as expertise in the energy sector,” said Baroness Brown, Chair of the Adaptation Committee. “Her critical infrastructure sector and industry experience will help us in the development [of] our work on adaptation, and what it means for the country to adjust to a warming world.”

Other Stuff

New Zealand climate change ambassador appointed (New Zealand Government)

Government of Canada announces support for Indigenous-led climate solutions in remote Indigenous communities (Government of Canada)

Introducing the Climate Resilience Center for Alaska (US Department of Energy)

Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, in collaboration with the Global Green Growth Institute, prepare to develop Qatar’s National Adaptation Plan (Qatar Ministry of Environment and Climate Change)

WHO and the Netherlands renew their partnership on climate change and health (World Health Organization)

How should we measure climate adaptation? (World Bank Blogs)

Hurricane Helene Could Hobble Silicon Production

Without climate-resilient supply chains, industries of all kinds can become undone following a shock. The tech sector is learning this brutal lesson in the wake of Hurricane Helene, after the storm inundated one small North Carolina town that is pivotal to the global production of silicon, a core ingredient of the modern semiconductors that power the electronic world.

Spruce Pine, in the north of the Tar Heel State, is the sole source of high-purity quartz in the US. This quartz is essential to making the crucibles — or melting pots — in which polysilicon is heated to make the high-grade material for computer chips and solar panels.

Hurricane Helene dumped 24.12 inches of rain on Spruce Pine, inundating the town and knocking off line the quartz-mining operations of The Quartz Corp and Sibelco. Production at the latter company’s site resumed on October 9. The Quartz Corp said on October 2 that it was “too early” to assess when its operations would resume. There had been no official update as of the publication of this newsletter.

Though large-scale disruption to silicon production appears to have been avoided this time around, this latest climate shock underscores the vulnerability of the US high-tech sector to vulnerable chokepoints in its supply chain

Zillow Adds Climate Risk Label to Home Listings

Zillow, a top US real estate marketplace, is badging every for-sale listing with a new climate risk score to inform prospective buyers of potential flood, fire, and storm hazards.

The upgrade leverages climate risk modeling by First Street, which is able to map climate-related financial risks at the property level. By year-end, each listing will include risk data for flood, wildfire, wind, heat, and air quality, together with risk scores, interactive maps, and insurance requirements. Climate risk projections will be available for 15 and 30 years into the future, the tenor of most US fixed term mortgages.

Recent Zillow analysis found that more homes listed in August came with major climate risks than five years ago. Over half of these listings had high risk from extreme heat, a third had high extreme wind exposure, and almost 17% faced wildfire risk. Around 13% had high risk of flooding.

Other Stuff

UK Met Office launches new Local Authority Climate Service (Met Office)

How satellite data has proven climate change is a climate crisis (Space.com)

G20 and Artificial Intelligence: Information integrity and adaptation in times of climate crisis (G20 Brasil 2024)

RESEARCH

The 2024 state of the climate report: Perilous times on planet Earth (Bioscience)

Life on the edge: A new toolbox for population-level climate change vulnerability assessments (Methods in Ecology and Evolution)

The treatment of physical climate risks by central banks — insights for the Reserve Bank of India (India Initiative on Climate Risks and Sustainable Finance)

Thanks for reading!

Louie Woodall
Editor