Climate Finance Roadmap's Tepid Reception, Uneasy Start to Adaptation Indicators Negotiations, Gates' Billions for AgTech, and More

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Climate leaders published a long-awaited blueprint for scaling finance in support of Paris Agreement goals ahead of the COP30 summit — with adaptation at its center. But absent strong support from wealthy nations at the conference, the plan may struggle to deliver meaningful new funding.

The “Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3T” comes at the end of a year-long round of talks following the 2024 climate summit in Azerbaijan, where countries agreed to work on increasing climate finance for developing countries to at least US$1.3trn a year by 2035. It outlines a broad range of potential sources for achieving this goal — from traditional development assistance and multilateral climate funds, to new taxes on aviation, wealth, and financial transactions.

The roadmap centers on five key “Rs”: replenishing grants and concessional finance, rebalancing debt and fiscal space, rechanneling private finance, revamping institutional capacity, and reshaping the financial system for equity. Strengthening adaptation finance “lies at the heart” of these “5Rs”, the report’s authors write.

On adaptation, the roadmap explains that current flows are “not nearly enough” and are failing to reach frontline communities that are most vulnerable to climate shocks. Citing data from recent UN Adaptation Gap reports, the authors claim less than 17% of international public finance delivered between 2017-21 reached communities in need.

It also stresses how shortcomings in adaptation finance are leading to systemic challenges for poor counties, in the form of higher sovereign debt costs and heightened economic volatility. “The current trajectory risks loss of life, worsening health impacts, stressed ecosystems, food inflation, productivity decline, disrupted supply chains, and threats to global financial stability,” the report reads. 

While admitting private finance has played a “bigger role” scaling renewables and decarbonization, the roadmap says it can support adaptation and resilience efforts too — especially across agriculture, water, infrastructure, and health. Private investors could also nurture a new generation of small businesses that protect and restore natural ecosystems and strengthen “nature-related value chains.”

The report features nine actions to scale finance for adaptation and ‘loss and damage’ — meaning losses that cannot be adapted away. These include having rich countries build on the almost-expired Glasgow Climate Pact goal of delivering US$40bn in adaptation finance annually by 2025, having governments and private institutions work on standardizing issuance of special “resilience bonds”, and improving the use of “digital tools” like e-vouchers to speed up delivery of finance.

However, the roadmap’s status as a guiding framework rather than a prelude to new, binding financing mechanisms could make it little more than a paper tiger. Climate groups knocked its perceived weaknesses. “[I]t does not go far enough in holding developed countries accountable,” said Carolina Pasquali, the Executive Director of Greenpeace Brasil. “We still need to see the money for real support to developing countries if we are serious about climate justice.”

Others say it’s up to climate diplomats meeting in Brazil to turn the plan into concrete action. “Now the ball is in the court of the countries,” says Ana Mulio Alvarez, Policy Advisor at think-tank E3G. “The cards are on the table: NDCs [Nationally Determined Contributions] are in. The finance roadmap is in. What are they going to do about it?”

Jamaica will receive the full US$150mn payout from a World Bank-issued catastrophe bond following Hurricane Melissa, which tore through the island nation last month. The bond, issued in 2024 by the World Bank’s IBRD arm, was activated after the third-party calculation agent — AIR Worldwide — verified that the storm exceeded pre-agreed thresholds on central pressure and path. The payout will support a swift transition from relief to resilient reconstruction, complemented by a broader World Bank Group assistance package. Officials say the payout reinforces catastrophe bonds’ growing role in transferring climate risk to capital markets investors. (World Bank)

The UK will not contribute to the Brazil-led Tropical Forests Forever Facility, a US$125bn fund aimed at protecting tropical ecosystems like the Amazon and Congo Basin. The decision has angered Brazilian officials and drawn criticism from climate leaders and green groups, who say it undermines UK leadership on deforestation — particularly as the country played a role in structuring the fund to begin with. However, The Guardian reports that the UK government may consider investing in the future. Initial contributions to the fund amount to some US$5bn, from Brazil and partners including Norway, Indonesia, and France. (The Guardian)

Finance needs for climate-resilient urban infrastructure projects are estimated to top US$105bn this year, according to data from environmental disclosure platform CDP and the Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy. This represents a 22% hike over 2024 levels. However, nearly 90% of these projects remain unfunded, and half of these are yet to secure any financing at all. The analysis covers over 2,100 projects from 507 cities. (CDP)

The European Central Bank hit Spanish lender ABANCA with a €187,650 (US$217,024) penalty for failing to meet climate- and environment-related risk requirements, marking a significant escalation in its climate risk oversight. The fine reflects 65 days of non-compliance with a December 2023 mandate requiring ABANCA to assess and document the materiality of its climate-related risks by March 2024. Since 2020, the ECB has ramped up pressure on banks through a mix of supervisory guidance, climate stress tests, and regulatory mandates. The case underscores the regulator’s growing insistence that climate risk be treated with the same rigor as traditional financial risks. (European Central Bank)

The Bank of England (BoE) should step up efforts to address climate- and nature-related risks if it is to tackle inflation and head off financial instability, the WWF has said. In a new report, the non-profit urged the BoE to build up its climate-related technical capacity and strengthen supervisory expectations for lenders and investors, among other things. “[I]t is crucial central bankers in the UK and around the world assess and address climate- and nature-related risks, to manage inflation, ensure financial stability and deliver economic prosperity for all,” wrote WWF-UK CEO Tanya Steele on LinkedIn. (WWF)

Climate diplomats could make important progress on tracking global adaptation efforts at the COP30 summit — but much depends on whether they can agree on a common set of indicators that some parties appear opposed to.

Ahead of the international climate conference in Belém, which held its opening plenary today, a UN-convened expert group published a final batch of 100 potential indicators for measuring countries’ alignment with the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA). This is the Paris Agreement objective that commits nations to strengthening their resilience and reducing their vulnerability to climate shocks.

The indicators are slated for discussion over the next two weeks of talks, and could be formally adopted by the whole conference at the summit’s conclusion. This outcome could help accelerate adaptation action worldwide, and put climate-proofing targets on a par with the Paris Agreement’s emissions reduction goals.

However, experts reached by Climate Proof suggest the path to adoption could be bumpy — and may even be blocked entirely.

“From a Global South perspective, the list of indicators has too many disadvantages, lacks policy coherency, [is] too prescriptive and at times [is] contradictory with the Paris Agreement’s provisions,” says Imane Saidi, Diplomacy and Cooperation Researcher at the Imal Initiative for Climate and Development, a think-tank supporting climate mitigation and resilience for communities in Morocco, the Arab region, and Africa. “It will be a difficult way forward in cleaning it up and adopting it,” she adds.

One member of the technical expert group that drafted the 100 indicators says there are concerns that some parties could completely shut down discussions on the indicator list, or limit adoption to a small subset. “Other scenarios are that the indicator list does not get adopted, and instead countries are simply invited to consider them for the future BTR [Biennial Transparency Reporting],” they add.

Another expert observer says they have heard opposing positions on the indicators expressed by the same country group in recent weeks, suggesting resistance to their adoption could be a negotiating tactic.

The GGA has strong backing from the COP30 host nation. Last Friday, at a summit of global leaders ahead of the opening plenary, Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said “adaptation cannot remain the silent partner of mitigation” and that a core task of the conference would be to “elevate adaptation the same level of political and financial ambition as mitigation.”

Countries made fitful progress toward their climate goals last year and the world is now on track for warming of 2.8°C based on current policies, according to the UN’s 2025 Emissions Gap Report. This explains that just 60 parties to the Paris Agreement had submitted new 2035 targets — known as Nationally Determined Contributions — by the September deadline, and that global emissions rose 2.3% in 2024. The current emissions trajectory suggests overshooting the 1.5°C target enshrined in the global pact is now unavoidable absent drastic, immediate action. (UNEP)

The last decade of extreme weather-related disasters have created 250 million internally displaced people, a new report from the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) reveals. Three in four refugees from conflicts or disasters are currently living in countries facing high-to-extreme exposure to climate-related hazards, with refugee settlements in Africa and parts of Asia particularly exposed. The agency calls on policymakers to incorporate displaced communities into national climate plans and ensure they receive adequate investment to bolster their resilience. (UNHCR)

Ireland’s economy and financial system may be undermined by extreme weather risks due to chronically underfunded climate adaptation, according to a joint report from the Climate Change Advisory Council and the Central Bank of Ireland. It explains that despite growing recognition of climate impacts, investment in local adaptation projects remains hamstrung by high upfront costs, fragmented funding access, and a lack of climate risk data. To better climate-proof the economy, it calls for an Ireland-wide National Adaptation Finance Strategy, clearer private investment pathways, and a pipeline of scalable, investable projects. (The Climate Change Advisory Council Ireland)

New York Attorney General Letitia James secured a US$1.1mn settlement from JBS USA, the American subsidiary of the world’s largest beef producer, over false advertising of its climate commitments. The Office of the Attorney General (OAG) found that the company misled consumers by promoting a “net zero by 2040” goal without any concrete emissions data or actionable plan, despite warnings from advertising watchdogs. The funds will go toward supporting climate-smart agriculture initiatives in New York, with a focus on farms that lost federal food bank contracts. As part of the agreement, JBS USA must reform its environmental marketing practices and report annually to the OAG for three years. (Office of the New York State Attorney General) 

The Gates Foundation will pour at least US$1.4bn into climate adaptation technologies for farmers in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia over the next four years, aiming to bolster regional food security and prevent communities from slipping into poverty as extreme weather intensifies.

Innovations targeted by the new investment include biofertilisers, soil health mapping tools, climate-resilient crop varieties that can withstand heat and drought, and digital advisory services to better advise farmers on planting and risk management.

“Smallholder farmers are feeding their communities under the toughest conditions imaginable," said tech billionaire Bill Gates, chair of the Gates Foundation. “We’re supporting their ingenuity with the tools and resources to help them thrive — because investing in their resilience is one of the smartest, most impactful things we can do for people and the planet.”

The announcement follows an October memo from Gates urging climate advocates to prioritize building resilience and improving human welfare. Last week, he pushed back against right-wing arguments that this message was an admission that action on global warming had gone too far. In an interview with Axios, he said President Donald Trump’s claim that his message marked a retreat from clean energy and decarbonization was wrong, calling such interpretations a “gigantic misreading,” and reiterated that his funding for climate and health initiatives is rising.

Terranova, a California start-up aiming to use terraforming robots to combat flooding and land subsidence, has raised US$7mn in seed funding to scale its subsurface injection tech. Backed by Outlander, Congruent Ventures, and others, the company injects wood slurry deep underground to elevate flood-prone areas by up to a foot per day per acre, offering a low-cost, climate-friendly alternative to levees and seawalls. (Terranova)

The Carlsberg Research Laboratory, an arm of the global alcohol brand, has cracked the genetic code behind pre-harvest sprouting (PHS) — a climate-driven crop failure that causes billions in losses annually. The discovery, published in the journal Science, shows how a single gene — known as MKK3 — influences seed dormancy and sprouting risk in barley, opening the door to new ways to breed crops that are both resilient to climate extremes and suited for various agricultural needs. (Carlsberg)

Asset manager Macquarie Group and MIT Solve have announced a US$500,000 prize fund to support up to five solutions rooted in Brazil that strengthen climate resilience, create local jobs, and build skills. The initiative is targeted at tech-enabled innovations that support energy and grid resilience, water resource management, and agriculture and food systems, among others. The prize is open for applications from November 25 to February 25. (Macquarie)

Climate change enhanced intensity of Hurricane Melissa, testing limits of adaptation in Jamaica and eastern Cuba (World Weather Attribution)

Increasing extreme winds challenge offshore wind energy resilience (Nature Communications)

A rapidly closing window for coral persistence under global warming (Nature Communications)

Stratospheric aerosol climate intervention could reduce crop nutritional value (Environmental Research Letters)

The Climate Action Monitor 2025 (OECD)

Strategic resilience: outlining a new government approach to climate change adaptation (Stockholm Environment Institute)

Integrating disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in the cooperation framework: Lessons, good practices and opportunities ahead (UNDRR)

Severe weather in a changing climate – third edition (International Australia Group)

Thanks for reading!

Louie Woodall
Editor