COP29 Adaptation Wins and Fails

** Event Announcement **

Today in Climate Proof we’re doing something a little different for this post-COP29 edition. We’ve racked up the main adaptation “wins” and “fails” from the conference so you have all the info you need on what happened down in Baku. Normal service will resume next week.

Finance:

• New Climate Finance Goal Falls Short

• Adaptation Finance Innovators

• Adaptation Fund Misses Fundraising Target

Policy:

• Global Goal on Adaptation Advances

• “Transformational” Adaptation Gets its Due

• National Adaptation Plan Progress Stalls

Tech:

• Early Warning Systems Make (Some) Progress

• Climate Project Explorer Debuts

Research:

• Another round-up of papers and journal articles on all things climate adaptation

Fail: New Climate Finance Goal Falls Short

“A joke”. “Abysmally poor”. “An insult”. 

These were just some of the reactions to the US$300bn-a-year by 2035 climate finance deal clinched at COP29 on Sunday, one that offers little to developing countries in the way of adaptation.

Under the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) agreement, rich nations pledge to at least triple the US$100bn annual financial commitment they made back in 2009. Finance should come “[f]rom a wide variety of sources”, meaning the new target could be met not just with bilateral government grants, but also through private instruments and multilateral development bank contributions.

The final text also calls for public and private actors “to enable the scaling up of financing” to at least US$1.3trn by 2035. However, this is worded more as an aspiration than as a goal. Earlier at the climate summit, a UN-backed expert panel said developing countries need at least US$1trn from overseas sources per year by 2030 to meet climate adaptation and mitigation goals, and US$1.3trn per year by 2035. 

While the US$300bn-a-year target is an improvement on the US$200-250bn amount floated in earlier drafts, this still represents a very slight real increase in finance flows once inflation is factored in. Indeed, Julie Segal — Senior Program Manager for climate finance at Canadian nonprofit Environmental Defence — calculated that US$100 billion in 2009, when adjusted for inflation, is projected to be worth more than US$250 billion by 2035.

The agreement does not oblige industrialized nations to earmark finance for adaptation and resilience purposes, something earlier drafts had considered. The UN recently reported that the adaptation finance gap to be around US$187-359bn.

Instead, the text simply says the NCQG should seek “a balance” between adaptation and mitigation. Moreover, language on the provision of grant-based and concessional finance for adaptation was watered down in the final version. Now parties simply “acknowledge” the need for this kind of finance for adaptation and loss and damage.

One last-minute addition to the text is a promise to launch a “Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3T”, a forum for discussing ways to ramp up climate finance to US$1.3trn “including through grants, concessional and nondebt-creating instruments.” The text asks for parties to produce a report on their findings by next November.

While many developing countries blasted the U$300bn pledge as too little, too late, others were more measured. “It isn’t nearly enough, but it’s a start,” said Tina Stege, climate envoy for the Marshall Islands, in a statement. “We’ve made it clear that these funds must come with fewer obstacles so they reach those who need them most.”

Rich world negotiators struck a more bullish tone. Wopke Hoekstra, European Commissioner for Climate Action, said the US$300bn target is “ambitious, necessary, realistic and achievable.”

Win: Adaptation Finance Innovators

Scaling private finance for adaptation was one of the watchwords of this COP. The Global Environment Facility (GEF) — which oversees the UN’s climate funds — actually put dollars behind this aspiration, not just words. 

In Baku, it awarded $20mn in grants to 13 “climate adaptation innovators” working to advance climate-proofing efforts in the finance sector. One winner was the Systemic Capital for Adaptation Localization and Expansion (SCALE) project from The Lightsmith Group, highlighted last week. 

Others include the Climate Bonds Initiative (CBI), which was granted funds to build out an Adaptation and Resilience Bonds Accelerator. The Accelerator aims to catalyze the market for debt instruments where the proceeds are earmarked for projects that protect or prepare against physical climate risks. The GEF money will be used to launch two adaptation bonds readiness ‘hubs’ in two pilot countries, tasked with building out a pipeline of “bankable” adaptation projects that can be financed by bonds. The CBI will also create a resource center to share learnings and best practices.

Impact investor GAWA Capital received financing to support its Kuali Fund, a blended finance vehicle that will invest in community climate adaptation in Latin America and India, while Outrigger Impact — a ‘blue economy’ fund — got help for its blended finance impact fund for Small Island Developing States (SIDs).

The other winners were the Africa Enterprise Challenge Fund, Climate Fund Managers, Corporación Instiglio, Farm Africa, FS Impact Finance, the International Organization for Standardization, the International Savanna Fire Management Initiative, Kiva, and the World Council of Credit Unions.

Fail: Adaptation Fund Misses Fundraising Target

The UN’s flagship vehicle for financing adaptation received just US$133mn in new funding pledges at COP29 — roughly one-third of the amount it was targeting. 

The Adaptation Fund, established at COP7 in 2001, supports communities in developing countries adapt to climate risks. Ahead of the Baku summit, it aimed to raise US$300mn. Countries fell short of the fund’s target for the second year in a row. In 2023, the fund received US$192mn. The last time the Adaptation Fund met its goal was in 2021, when it took in US$356mn against a US$120mn target.

Amounts Pledged To Adaptation Fund, 2021-2024

Germany was the largest contributor this year, plowing US$65mn into the fund. Spain gave a total of US$19mn, and Ireland US$13mn. Eleven countries in total donated to the fund this year.

Other Stuff

Unlocking adaptation finance in emerging market and developing economies (International Monetary Fund)

Australia commits US$200 million to support climate action in Asia and the Pacific (Australian Government)

Asian Development Bank approves loan to spur climate action in Mongolia (ADB)

New guidance offers a roadmap for the US insurance industry to build resilience amid increasing climate disasters (Ceres)

A debt conversion for nature for The Bahamas (Standard Chartered)

Gore Mutual Insurance welcomes Co-operators as national partner in their Climate and Equity Lab (International Cooperative and Mutual Insurance Federation)

Climate change pressures New Zealand’s residential insurance market (Insurance Business)

Win: Global Goal on Adaptation Advances

Climate negotiators achieved a breakthrough on measuring countries’ adaptation progress after a frantic scramble in the last hours of the Baku summit.

The Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) is a central plank of the Paris Agreement, intended to harden countries against climate shocks and boost their “adaptive capacity”. Progress on the goal has been frustrated by difficulties defining adaptation themes and challenges, setting targets, and choosing progress indicators. 

But on Sunday, countries agreed on a way forward. Parties committed to a “manageable set” of 100 indicators for tracking adaptation progress, mapped to the 11 adaptation targets that support the GGA. The final indicators have to be “globally applicable” and able to capture “various contexts of adaptation action”, so that countries can select those that best suit their circumstances. Ahead of the agreement, an expert group had received over 5,000 potential indicators from countries and other entities.

The United Arab Emirates–Belém work programme, tasked with choosing the indicators, must also provide information on the purpose and potential data sources for each indicator, and the “mechanisms” needed to develop data standards for each.

Significantly, the agreement says the work programme should define “quantitative and qualitative indicators” for “enabling factors for the implementation of adaptation action, including means of implementation.” This refers to indicators and data on the resources, including finance, deployed in pursuit of the adaptation targets. Poor nations pushed for these to be in-scope of the agreement so all countries could get a better understanding of adaptation finance needs.

The final GGA text also establishes the “Baku Adaptation Road Map”, another plan for advancing the adaptation components of the Paris Agreement. This is part of a broader effort to ensure adaptation continues to be a core theme at future COPs.

Win: “Transformational” Adaptation Gets its Due

There’s more than one flavor of adaptation. At COP29, “transformational adaptation” earned its way into the final texts for the GGA — showing its staying power as a concept (and target) in climate diplomacy land.

Transformational adaptation covers those actions that bring about deep, systemic change in pursuit of more climate-safe societies. “Incremental adaptation”, in contrast, are those smaller modifications that make existing systems a little more resistant to climate shocks.

Transformational adaptation was popularized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) via its Sixth Assessment Report several years ago. Here, scientists argued that even with emissions cuts, the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere were bound to unleash risks that could only be dealt via big, structural change.

Adaptation In A Warming World

Taking the concept from scientific papers into negotiating texts has taken time, however — and has not been without controversy. The UNFCCC Secretariat provided a technical paper ahead of COP29 laying out definitions and common understandings that was welcomed by parties at Baku. However, the complexities involved designing and implementing transformational adaptation strategies — coupled with fears that the lack of such plans could be used to filibuster climate finance — led some developing countries to recoil at including the concept in the GGA final text.

However, ultimately the it was included. Countries now recognize “that both incremental and transformational adaptation approaches are essential for protecting the well-being of people and the planet”, and have told the UNFCCC subsidiary bodies to mull over the technical paper further.

This sets the stage for a more thorough exploration of the concept at next year’s Bonn climate talks, and suggests public and private sector engagement in this more radical form of adaptation will be ramping up.

Fail: National Adaptation Plan Progress Stalls

Countries deferred the conclusion of the National Adaptation Plans (NAP) assessment to next year after the COP Presidency refused to tackle the subject during the second week of the Baku summit.

This ‘health check’ of countries’ adaptation strategies was supposed to resolve questions on a variety of issues, including on how NAP progress should be measured and how to incorporate gender equality and support for vulnerable populations in the plans.

As reported last week, by kicking the can down the road, COP has robbed developing countries of much-needed clarity. This may result in them producing delayed or inadequate NAPs. As of November 12, only 60 countries had submitted completed plans to the UNFCCC secretariat. 

All countries are supposed to submit their plans by end-2025.

Other Stuff

Biden marks his climate legacy during Amazon visit, asserting ‘nobody’ can reverse it (NPR)

Trump’s Energy Department pick has history of downplaying climate change impacts (The Hill)

Single agency needed to coordinate climate adaptation and recovery (Infrastructure New Zealand)

Win/Fail: Early Warning Systems Make (Some) Progress

Almost half the world’s countries lack comprehensive early warning systems (EWS) that can prevent deaths and reduce damages from climate shocks — though coverage is improving, according to a new report.

EWS allow governments to alert at-risk populations of approaching extreme weather events — like floods, wildfires, and heatwaves — giving them time to prepare for impact. Various types of EWS exist. Some activate sirens in threatened communities, others send text alerts directly to people’s smartphones. Certain governments have also experimented with drones and social media alerts. Estimates suggest EWS can help avoid losses of US$3-16bn a year.

The World Meteorological Association’s Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2024 report finds at least half of the countries in all but the Americas and Caribbean region have multi-hazard EWS. It also says there has been a “significant improvement” in these systems’ comprehensiveness. 

Four Elements Of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems

Still, less than half of the Least Developed Countries (LDC) and only one-third of Small Island States (SIDs) have sufficient EWS. But the report also notes that these countries started from a low baseline, and have improved coverage from 2015.

Tech and data solutions are needed to improve the spread and effectiveness of EWS, the report says. Countries need place-based, high-resolution disaster risk knowledge to plan these systems, and up-to-the-minute forecasting and monitoring capabilities to make sure they're effective. 

Tech that establishes platforms for data-sharing, integration, and coordination are having an impact, but rely on strong, stable internet connections to be useful, the report notes. It also says that “while most of the world’s population has Internet access”, coverage is uneven, especially in rural areas of poor countries.

The private sector has a role to play supporting EWS, too. The report says collaborations between countries, businesses, and other non-states actors are necessary to secure financing for these systems and enhance their technological capabilities.

Win: Climate Project Explorer Debuts

UN bodies throw off paperwork by the forestful. This makes their workings transparent, but can overwhelm those looking for specific information —for example, on where climate finance is flowing to.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has demonstrated a useful ability to sort through large amounts of data and surface what users want to know. Now, it’s being deployed to improve public understanding of how the four UN-backed Multilateral Climate Funds (MCFs) are investing their dollars.

The Climate Project Explorer, launched last week, is an AI-powered database of the MCFs’ project documents and policies. It allows users to make plain language searches of terms, concepts, project types, and more and receive an organized list of relevant documents. It is a far easier means of accessing data on projects than trawling through each MCF’s website.

Typing “adaptation” into the user interface yields 209 results for 2023-2024 alone. “Nature-based solutions” produces 186, and “climate-resilient infrastructure” 190.

The tool was put together by the MCFs together with Climate Policy Radar, an AI and data science nonprofit based in the UK.

The four MCFs are: the Adaptation Fund, Global Environment Facility, Green Climate Fund, and Climate Investment Funds.

Other Stuff

Communities can now apply for financial, technical help planning for extreme heat (NOAA)

Advancing urban tree monitoring with AI-powered digital twins (Tree-D)

Aquaria secures US$112mn to build the future of water (Aquaria)

OceanWell secures US$11mn in Series A to build deep-sea water farms and supply abundant fresh water (OceanWell)

General Atlantic’s BeyondNetZero Fund and TA partner to drive continued growth of Technosylva (Technosylva)

Epic Cleantec secures US$12mn in Series B funding to expand innovative water reuse solutions for commercial real estate (Epic Cleantec)

Almanac acquires Gro Intelligence IP to deliver ‘actionable insights across the global agricultural sector’ (AgFunder News)

RESEARCH

The future of childhood: The state of the world’s children 2024 in a changing world (UNICEF)

Increased emergency department medical imaging: Association with short-term exposures to ambient heat and particulate air pollution (Radiology)

Evaluating and elevating the role of wildlife road crossings in climate adaptation (Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment)

Thanks for reading!

Louie Woodall
Editor