Green Climate Fund Approves Near $1bn in New Projects, US Forest Service Overhaul, Climate Emergencies Resilience Lab Launches, and More

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Back in February, a viral Substack post caused equity markets to throw up so abruptly, so senselessly, that it made headlines around the world. 

The 7,000 word jeremiad from Citrini Research, a small investment research outfit, laid out a dystopian near-future where advanced AI decimates the white collar workforce — leading to mass unemployment, lower consumer spending, and ultimately an epic stock market sell-off and civil unrest. 

It was, to borrow a phrase from Neil Wilson, an analyst at Saxo Capital Markets, “doomsday porn”, and made little sense to anyone with an elementary grasp of economics. Nevertheless, it captured the imagination of half the world’s media and more than a few monied investors — some of whom fled the market in a panic, contributing to a 1% drop in the S&P 500 index. The stocks of software companies named in the piece suffered an even worse drubbing.

Really, the whole episode was very silly. But it certainly raised the salience of AI-related disruption as an investment theme. Speaking with a sustainable investment research director last week, I started to wonder what it would take for a Citrini-style article on climate risk and adaptation to have a commensurate impact on the markets, and why it hasn’t happened as yet. After all, unlike the Citrini piece — which was an exercise in speculative fiction — we have clear data that climate change is already, and will continue to, disrupt people, politics, and economies.

I came up with three reasons why the Citrini article caused such a ruckus — all of which the climate lobby could learn from.

Number one, the doomsday scenario was near-term, outlining a societal and economic calamity before 2030. Perhaps, for a species not known for its long-termism, this timeline imparted an urgency that climate advocates’ preoccupation with 2050 and 2100 cannot. The lesson — make your predictions short-term and tangible.

Number two, the article was larded with lurid details of the would-be collapse of real, known companies and systems. This is what led to stocks of ServiceNow, DoorDash, and American Express to drop so precipitously — they were named in the piece. What precise dynamic was at play here is unclear. I suspect a combination of sentiment-driven investors and fast-money algos responding to their actions contributed to the chaos. Still if Citrini hadn’t named those companies, I doubt they would have declined like they did.

Now in adaptation-land, climate-vulnerable companies and markets are often discussed in hushed tones, and in private spaces. The community seems squeamish about naming at-risk entities and sparking controversy. Perhaps it should be bolder. Maybe it should just come right out and say that the Florida property market really is on borrowed time, or that PG&E or Xcel or Edison International are just one more big wildfire away from bankruptcy (for the second time, in PG&E’s case). Maybe doing so would generate the kind of media buzz needed to prompt serious market engagement with climate risk and adaptation.

Number three, the Citrini article tapped into a preexisting unease with AI’s influence over the economy. While worries over the tech’s potential have circulated for years, Citrini worked to cohere these into a concrete (if illogical) narrative that clarified the threat for investors.

Adaptation evangelists have narratives of their own to drive interest — Jay Koh’s “unavoidable opportunity” being perhaps the most convincing. However, they have yet to achieve a breakthrough on a par with the Citrini article. One factor may be that AI is not bounded by geography, meaning many billions are able to interface with it directly. Extreme weather events and slow-moving chronic changes to the climate, on the other hand, impact discrete — though rapidly growing — populations in specific parts of the world. Because of this, climate risk remains rather abstract to large swathes of investors — though maybe not for much longer.

Of course, market virality cannot be bottled, and I’m not saying that by mimicking the characteristics of the Citrini article, an intrepid piece of futurecasting could transform investors’ relationship with adaptation and climate risk. But I do believe the climate lobby could be a little bolder in its predictions, a little braver about calling out vulnerable entities, and a little more focused on narratives than disjointed case studies that don’t tell a coherent story.

If doing so brings more attention to the theme — even if it comes with the sort of backlash Citrini received — it may very well be worth it.

Louie Woodall
Editor, Climate Proof

The Green Climate Fund (GCF) approved US$960mn for adaptation and mitigation projects at its March Board meeting, pushing its total portfolio past US$20bn across 354 projects. 

The world’s largest dedicated climate fund said nearly half of the money — US$441mn — would flow to Africa, headlined by a US$250mn World Bank program to expand resilient energy access across 21 countries in Eastern and Southern Africa.

New first-time receivers of GCF funding include Chad, Jamaica, and The Bahamas. Eight of the 18 greenlit projects are adaptation-only, with the adaptation share representing 56% in grant equivalent terms.

Seven of the projects had funding agreements signed immediately after the meeting. These include an effort to strengthen Chad’s adaptation of land, ecosystems, and smallholder farmers, a “Climate Risk Protection Shield” for Zambia bringing better insurance to 140,000 farming households, and an initiative to strengthen the climate resilience of the Peruvian Amazon backed by the World Wildlife Fund. 

“By combining long-term financing with the leadership of Indigenous peoples and the Government of Peru, we are creating a durable model that protects nature and strengthens community resilience across one of the most vital ecosystems on Earth,” said Carter Roberts, President and CEO of WWF-US, on the announcement of the grant.

The GCF also signed off on four new regional offices, to be located in Panama City in Panama, Amman in Jordan, Nairobi in Kenya, Abidjan in Côte d'Ivoire; and Sava in Fiji. The offices are intended to strengthen coordination with national governments and oversee the implementation of funded projects.

US state insurance regulators launched a massive homeowners data collection exercise at its recent Spring Meeting, requiring insurers writing at least US$50,000 in relevant premium to submit ZIP code-level policy data by June 15. The data call, overseen by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC), covers policy years 2018–2025 and spans premiums, claims by peril, cancellations, non-renewals, and risk mitigation discounts. The NAIC plans to release a public report in early 2027 with findings from the data. (NAIC)

President Trump blasted US insurers covering California wildfire victims on Truth Social last Tuesday, claiming “they have been absolutely horrible to people” whose homes burned down. Trump singled out State Farm by name, accusing it of shortchanging policyholders who paid premiums for years before the January 2025 fires struck. The social media post also directed Lee Zeldin, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, to compile a list of companies that “acted swiftly, courageously, and bravely” in the wake of the fires, and a list of those “that were particularly bad”. (Truth Social) 

South Africa’s Rand Merchant Bank has structured the continent’s first nature-linked outcomes-based bond, tying investor returns to ecological restoration and invasive plants removal in sensitive water catchment areas. Proceeds from the bond sale will support The Nature Conservancy in its efforts to clear these hazards and improve streamflow into storage dams serving Greater Cape Town. The R2.5bn (US$150mn) instrument will payout returns based on independently verified clearing outcomes. (Rand Merchant Bank)

Mauritius Commercial Bank closed a US$100mn, 10-year climate financing facility with three development finance organizations, its second such line following a US$120mn deal in 2023. The funds will target climate mitigation and adaptation projects across Africa. The Dutch Fund For Climate and Development (FMO), France’s Proparco, Germany’s DEG arranged the deal. (Mauritius Commercial Bank)

The US Forest Service will shutter 57 research stations under a reorganization plan published last week, likely undermining the agency’s work to monitor climate-driven threats to the nation’s forests.

Under the plan, the agency’s research division will be consolidated at a new headquarters in Fort Collins, Colorado, with field researchers shuffled to other state offices. The Forest Service’s headquarters will also move to Salt Lake City in Utah from Washington. The US Department of Agriculture, which houses the Forest Service, said there would be “no interruption or change” to existing firefighting capabilities as part of the reorganization.

Still, the shake-up could hobble efforts to understand how wildfires, invasive species, droughts, and other climate-driven hazards affect important natural ecosystems, the New York Times reports. Several current agency employees who spoke to the Times said they expected many colleagues would rather leave the agency than switch jobs or relocate.

Under the Trump administration, climate-related work at the Forest Service has already been degraded, with studies on climate and ecological hazards to forests relegated in importance, according to one current researcher interviewed by the Times. The agency was also heavily impacted by the cull of federal employees launched by the so-called Department of Government Efficiency last year, which saw it lose 5,860 of its 35,550 employees in the first half of 2025.

The Trump administration’s 2027 budget proposal includes swingeing cuts to climate services and science. The top-level document from the Office of Management and Budget targets SERVIR, NASA's US$10mn-a-year climate-monitoring partnership with the now defunct US Agency for International Development , as part of a US$3.4bn cut to NASA science missions. The White House is also seeking to cancel US$15.2bn in Department of Energy infrastructure funds, cut US$1.6bn in National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration climate research and education grants, and eliminate US$150mn to the Global Environment Facility. (The White House)

A federal judge heard arguments last Monday on whether to dismiss two lawsuits challenging Vermont’s first-in-the-nation climate superfund law, which would require fossil fuel companies to fund adaptation projects in line with their contribution to climate pollution. The state argued it acted within sovereign authority to protect public welfare; while the Department of Justice and industry plaintiffs countered that Vermont cannot hold out-of-state energy producers liable for global greenhouse gas emissions. Judge Mary Kay Lanthier took the motions under advisement and said she would issue rulings as soon as possible. (Vermont Public)

The European Commission is directing €21.5mn (US$24.8mn) from its agricultural reserve to farmers in Bulgaria, Estonia, and Hungary hit by climate-driven crop losses during the 2025 growing season. Member States can top up disbursements with national funds at up to 200% of EU allocations. Aid must reach farmers by September 2026. (European Commission)

England recorded 1,504 heat-associated deaths during the summer of 2025 — the country’s warmest on record — according to a report from the UK Health Security Agency. Mortality rates were highest for adults aged 85, a cohort which saw 364 heat-related deaths per million. London and the East of England recorded the highest regional totals. While the fatality numbers are concerning, the toll came in at nearly half of the 3,039 fatalities that mortality models had projected, in part because of the effectiveness of national and local adverse weather plans and heat alerts. (UK Health Security Agency)

Ireland's Climate Change Advisory Council declared climate adaptation a “central national priority”, citing measurable acceleration in extreme weather damage. Notably, 2025’s Storm Éowyn generated Ireland's costliest storm-related insurance event on record, while Storm Claudia later that same year delivered rainfall made 12% more intense by human emissions. The Council flagged yawning data gaps in monitoring the economic and social costs of extreme events, warning that delayed investment in flood resilience and infrastructure will exacerbate future losses. (Climate Change Advisory Council)

Agricultural technology start-ups have a new champion in the Climate Emergencies Resilience Lab, a new program supporting adaptive crop solutions.

Set up by venture creator Deep Science Ventures and non-profit Renaissance Philanthropy, the Lab is backing three “technical pillars” in agtech: forecasted biological priming, environment-responsive protectants, and rapid breeding tools. The partners argue that genetic engineering for crop resilience is approaching its limits — and want to push the agtech field in a different direction.

“This is about creating a de-risked pathway that transforms plant science into investment-ready companies,” said Dom Falcão, Co-Founding Director at Deep Science Ventures. “We are providing the systematic architecture to turn primed resilience into a dominant market category.”

The Lab’s backers will tap experts to support the technical and commercial scoping of innovations across the three pillars, working backwards from specific ag and environmental needs to craft “field-ready data packages.” This approach is intended to make sure efforts are focused on technologies that “can achieve the greatest global economic and nutritional impact.”

The European Innovation Council awarded €118mn (US$136mn) to 30 early-stage research projects under its 2025 Pathfinder Challenges program, with climate-resilient crops among the four priority areas. One funded project, INPROBED, will use deep learning and single-cell genomics to engineer heat- and drought-tolerant tomatoes — a potential tool for food system adaptation. (European Innovation Council)

Water treatment technology innovator Earth Science Laboratories (ESL) has been acquired by SePRO Corporation, a provider of plant protection and management solutions for specialized markets. ESL’s products include a solution for controlling algae and another for invasive mussel control, two challenges exacerbated by climate change. ESL’s products are used across aquatic and municipal environments, including drinking water systems and critical infrastructure. (SePRO)

Trex, an energy and climate scenario platform, has launched an inaugural product suite for financial institutions that models non-linear climate dynamics, tipping points, and cascading shocks from extreme weather events and policy shifts. Trex Tipping Point Scenarios Climate combines macroeconomic modeling with asset-level data through an exclusive partnership with Cambridge Econometrics, using its E3ME-FTT model. Trex is a spin-out from the University of Exeter. (Trex)

Human-induced climate change intensifies spatially compounding fire weather extremes across European countries (npj Natural Hazards)

Will cities keep getting hotter? The interplay of urban expansion and greening reshapes future urban heat trajectories (PNAS Nexus)

Expansion of Antarctic surface melt through the 21st century (Nature Communications)

Wildfire risk for species under climate change (Nature Climate Change)

Machine learning-based temperature prediction across diverse ecosystems for the Boro Season in Bangladesh (Scientific Reports)

Adoption of climate-smart agricultural technologies and practices in fragile and conflict-affected settings (Communications Earth & Environment)

Investing smarter and deeper to advance equity in high-stakes coastal locations in the Global South (Communications Sustainability)

High-resolution wave climate data under future climate scenarios along the European Atlantic coast (Scientific Data)

Air quality alerts, health impacts, and adaptation implications under varying climate policy (National Library of Medicine)

The price of resilience: Understanding wildfire cost allocation in the transmission context (UCLA)

Climate change redefines suitability and resilience in global arabica coffee production (Rabobank)

Thanks for reading!

Louie Woodall
Editor