How Do You Measure Adaptation? UN Diplomats Try to Agree

The latest round of UN climate negotiations kick off in Bonn, Germany next week, where a sprawling technical exercise to measure progress on climate adaptation is set to take center stage. At stake is whether countries can agree on a common set of indicators to measure how well the world is adapting to the impacts of a warming planet — and in doing so, take a meaningful step toward fulfilling a key promise of the Paris Agreement. 

A frantic effort has been underway since last year’s COP 29 in Baku to construct indicators that are ready for prime time. A technical working group of 78 experts has compiled a list of 490 potential indicators — refined down from an initial muddle of more than 9,000 submitted by countries and other stakeholders. They are organized across 7 thematic and four cross-cutting dimension targets that contribute to the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), covering everything from climate-resilient health systems to early warning coverage and food security. But only a “manageable set” of 100 indicators can make it into the final package due to a cap agreed at the Baku summit. Negotiators at Bonn now face the unenviable task of slimming down the list in time for a final decision at COP 30 in Brazil this November.

That will be easier said than done. The indicators are politically charged, with deep divisions between developed and developing countries over what should be measured and why. But the Bonn talks have to move the debate forward if the process is to stay on track. “Adaptation is much more elusive than mitigation. It cannot easily be quantified,” says Timo Leiter, one of the experts mandated to develop the new indicators and a Distinguished Policy Fellow at the London School of Economics. “What we absolutely need out of Bonn is an agreement on the process moving forward.”

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