Adaptation's $9trn Opportunity, Watchdog Slams UK Climate Preparedness, Grid Resiliency Post-Iberian Blackout, and More

Singapore’s GIC Sees US$9trn Boom in Climate Adaptation Market

Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund estimates that annual revenues for climate adaptation solution providers could quadruple to US$4trn a year by 2050 — and grow the associated adaptation investment universe to US$9trn.

In a new report co-authored by Bain & Company, the management consultancy, Singapore’s GIC said earnings for companies providing weather intelligence, wind-resistant building components, and firefighting equipment could increase the most over the next 25 years, with the total addressable market for these solutions expected to grow 250% to 350% under a ‘Base Case’ scenario, which assumes 2.7°C of warming by the end of this century.

Companies in water treatment, indoor cooling, and flood-resistant building components are anticipated to have the largest enterprise values by 2050 among the solution providers analyzed.

Base Case Scenario Investment Value And Revenue Growth By 2050 Across Adaptation Solution Groups

Of the overall US$9trn adaptation investment opportunity identified, encompassing public and private debt and equity, GIC says US$3trn will be driven by risks and impacts from rising temperatures alone.

Moreover, the report’s authors claim that adaptation-focused company valuations are likely to multiply over the coming decades no matter the speed and scale of global decarbonization efforts. Between low, medium, and high warming scenarios, GIC projects a variation in the estimated size of the overall adaptation investment opportunity of just +/-4% by 2050. “This small variation arises because the anticipated differences in global warming across scenarios are minimal over the next 25 years, with the most divergence between scenarios expected to materialise in the second half of the century,” the report says.

In Brief

Australia’s local councils are calling for a AUD$400mn (US$258mn) annual climate adaptation fund to help deliver tailored, community-focused solutions to rising climate threats like floods, heatwaves, and coastal erosion. Through the “Put Our Communities First” campaign, the Australian Local Government Association is urging federal leaders to provide stable, formula-based funding so councils can invest in long-term resilience infrastructure. The proposal is part of a broader AUD$3.5bn (US$2.3bn) push to boost local government capacity across housing, roads, and emergency management. (Australian Local Government Association)

The UK’s Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) has released updated expectations for how banks and insurers manage climate-related risks, pressing them to close gaps in their current governance, scenario analysis, and data practices. The proposal aims to engender improvements to risk analysis and management processes and make institutions integrate climate into their core business strategies. The PRA also encourages firms to use forward-looking tools, rather than backward-looking data, to better prepare for the dynamic climate impacts expected as global warming intensifies. (Bank of England / Prudential Regulation Authority)

The US Green Building Council has launched LEED v5, a major upgrade to its green building certification standard that places new emphasis on decarbonization, occupant health, and climate resilience. All in-scope projects will now undergo climate risk assessments to bolster awareness of hazards and inform adaptation strategies. (US Green Building Council)

JP Morgan’s latest climate adaptation report argues that businesses must move beyond mitigation and start treating adaptation as a core strategic investment. Authored by Sarah Kapnick, the bank’s Head of Climate Advisory and former Chief Scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the report says companies that act early to reduce exposure and build resilience can unlock financial upside, with estimated adaptation returns ranging from US$2 to US$43 for every dollar spent. (JP Morgan)

New analysis from Verisk Maplecroft suggests that by 2050, over US$1.1trn in corporate value from companies listed on the world’s five largest stock markets will be exposed to severe socio-economic climate risks in vulnerable countries — up from just US$34.8bn today. Emerging markets like India, Nigeria, and Bangladesh in particular face increasingly severe threats from extreme heat, drought, and political instability. (Verisk)

Indonesia is launching the Climate Resilience Fund “DINFRA” to mobilize public and private finance for nature-based solutions like mangrove restoration and reforestation. The fund, which is backed by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and UN Capital Development Fund, seeks to close the adaptation finance gap and strengthen the country’s climate resilience. (UNEP)

UK Adaptation Progress Slammed by Watchdog

Progress on adaptation in the UK is “either too slow, has stalled, or is heading in the wrong direction”, the country’s independent Climate Change Committee (CCC) has said.

Without additional action, by 2050 around one-quarter of all UK homes and half of all transit routes could be at risk of flooding, while key infrastructure systems could buckle under extreme heat conditions. Economic output could be impacted by up to 7% of GDP.

The warnings are part of a CCC report evaluating the implementation of the UK’s Third National Adaptation Programme (NAP3), which was published in 2023 under the last Conservative government. The Committee says NAP3 has been “ineffective” at driving meaningful preparedness and has so far failed to make adaptation a cross-government priority. Planning has been “piecemeal and disjointed”, it adds.

Summary of Climate Change Committee Assessment Of UK Progress In Preparing For Climate Change

Last year, Friends of the Earth brought a legal challenge against the government’s adaptation plan, claiming that NAP3 was “unlawful” for failing to protect people, property, and infrastructure from escalating climate risks. In response to the CCC report, Friends of the Earth climate campaigner, Alison Dilworth, said “the government must urgently step up” to protect lives and shield the economy from harm. The advocacy group is urging the current Labour government, which has been in office since July last year, to overhaul adaptation planning so it includes “specific and measurable adaptation objectives.” 

The government has promised to “improve resilience and preparation across central government, local authorities, local communities, and emergency services”. However, the CCC says it has found “little evidence of a change of course” and believes the “slow pace of change” suggests adaptation is not yet “a top priority”. The Committee recommends a new approach to adaptation planning that includes improved objectives and targets, better coordination across government and integration with spending plans, and proper monitoring and evaluation.

Floods Minister Emma Hardy told BBC News that the government is “really committed” to adaptation but admitted “there’s more that needs to be done.” Member of Parliament Toby Perkins, chair of the legislature’s Environmental Audit Committee, said he was “alarmed” by the CCC report and urged ministers to improve adaptation coordination across departments.

In Brief

The White House’s budget proposal includes deep cuts to agencies and programs committed to climate adaptation and resilience. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) — the US’s primary climate and weather center — could see its budget slashed by US$1.5bn. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which disbursed billions in grants for clean energy and climate resilience under the Biden administration, is targeted for US$5bn in cuts, a budget reduction of around 55% on current levels. Further cuts to overseas aid and contributions to adaptation efforts managed by the Global Environment Facility and Climate Investment Funds are also proposed. (The White House)

The Trump administration abruptly dismissed nearly 400 contributors to the latest US National Climate Assessment, undercutting efforts to better understand and adapt to worsening climate risks. The report, mandated by Congress, has to be published every four years under a 1990 law. Without contributors, it is unclear how the next edition — slated for 2028 — will be produced. (Reuters)

A US initiative supporting state-level climate risk preparedness and disaster recovery is being gutted by the Trump administration. The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP) provides funds for local governments to safeguard properties and strengthen hospitals, power stations, and other critical infrastructure against climate shocks. The Trump administration stopped approving new earmarks under the program in April. (E&E News)

The US Justice Department has sued four states — Hawaii, Michigan, New York, and Vermont — over their efforts to make fossil fuel giants pay for climate adaptation measures and hold them accountable for climate damages in court. The department argues the states’ initiatives conflict with federal authority under Trump’s “energy dominance” agenda. (Associated Press) 

California legislators have introduced a “California Safe Homes Act” that aims to reduce wildfire risk to residential properties and secure insurance access for homeowners through the funding of home-hardening measures like fire-safe roofs and defensible space. (California Department of Insurance)

Hawaii is poised to enact America’s first climate impact fee on tourists. The measure, which the legislature passed last Friday, raises the state’s hotel tax to 14% and is expected to generate US$100mn annually for disaster and climate risk mitigation efforts. Governor Josh Green called the bill a "generational commitment" to protect Hawaii from climate-driven threats, and has promised to sign it into law by July 9. (Governor Josh Green)

Iberian Blackout Spotlights Need for Grid Resilience Tech

An 18-hour blackout across Spain and Portugal has raised urgent questions about the resilience of European power grids in the face of unexpected shocks.

As of the time of writing, a full explanation for last Monday’s power outage — which brought mass disruption to businesses, transit networks, and the daily lives of millions — has yet to be provided. Spanish ministers have urged “caution” when it comes to assigning blame.

A sudden, short-lived loss of power from the grid appears to be one reason for the blackout, but what exactly caused this interruption — and why the network wasn’t able to compensate — is still unclear. An initial report attributed to the Portuguese grid operator, REN, cited a “rare atmospheric phenomenon” for the glitch. However, the weather in Spain was normal on Monday, and on Tuesday REN said it was not responsible for the statement.

In the wake of the blackout, close attention is being paid to the blend of generation technologies that supply the Spanish and Portuguese grids. Old-school fossil fuel and nuclear generators are equipped with spinning rotors that add inertia to the system, which has historically helped to curb the impact of sudden power supply and demand mismatches. Newer wind and solar generating technologies are built differently, and don’t provide this kind of inertia. 

The challenges posed by this new tech paradigm are well understood by grid operators. Red Eléctrica, Spain’s grid operator, said in its most recent annual report that the “high penetration” of renewable technologies in the grid “without the necessary technical capabilities” could cause outages. It added that it is taking measures to address this risk by reinforcing international interconnections, building up storage systems, and developing technologies that enhance renewable generation “to fortify and satisfy the needs of the inertia system.”

The blackout has heightened focus on a range of grid resilience technologies which can be used to protect against outages. For example, to add inertia to grid systems increasingly reliant on renewables, investments are being made into spinning flywheels and lithium-ion batteries that can charge and discharge in milliseconds. Efforts are also underway to shield generating capacity from extreme weather events, like severe storms that can knock-out wind turbines and droughts that can hobble hydropower facilities.

An effective way to strengthen grid resilience no matter the type of threat is decentralization. Monolithic power systems amplify the impact of disruptions, whether they be caused by extreme weather, supply/demand imbalances, or cyber attacks. By embracing microgrids and local power generation, communities can supply themselves with energy and reduce their reliance on regional and national-level grid infrastructure. 

In Brief

India has become the first country to develop genome-edited rice varieties using CRISPR-Cas technology, marking a breakthrough for climate-resilient agriculture. The two new ICAR-developed strains — DRR Rice 100 and Pusa DST Rice 1 — offer higher yields, greater drought and salinity tolerance, and significant reductions in water use and greenhouse gas emissions. (Indian Council of Agricultural Research)

UMass President Marty Meehan used his 2025 State of the University address to spotlight climate tech as a cornerstone of the university’s future. UMass aims to create research hubs dedicated to sustainability and climate resilience that can support the state’s growing climate tech economy. For example, UMass Boston will pioneer research on coastal resilience and climate justice and serve as a “national and international convener on climate.” (University of Massachusetts)

A new report from the Tony Blair Institute argues that climate adaptation has to be put on an equal footing with mitigation if calamitous human and economic damages are to be reduced. It says that tech solutions in disaster prediction and risk reduction — including AI-driven solutions — will be “essential in helping governments and businesses anticipate risks and develop data-driven, cost-effective resilience strategies.” The report also calls for “innovative financing models” to bolster climate resilience and adaptation.(Tony Blair Institute for Global Change)

RESEARCH

Increased flood exposure in the Pacific Northwest following earthquake-driven subsidence and sea-level rise (PNAS)

Decreased likelihood of schooling as a consequence of tropical cyclones: Evidence from 13 low- and middle-income countries (PNAS)

Finnish forest-related laws need to acknowledge climate change risks and integrate adaptive strategies to enhance resiliency (Communications Earth & Environment)

Climate risks: Strategies for building resilience in a more volatile world (Zurich Insurance Group)

Thanks for reading!

Louie Woodall
Editor