Tariffs' Climate-Proofing Costs, USAID Chaos, New Zealand Adaptation Framework, and More

Finance:

• Trump Tariffs to Raise US Climate-Proofing Costs

• Trump & Musk’s Assault on USAID Threatens Global Climate Resilience

Policy:

• US Climate Resilience Efforts Caught in Funding Freeze Chaos

• New Zealand Greenlights Adaptation Framework

Tech:

• Google Spinout Offers AI-Powered Crop Resilience

Research:

• Another round-up of papers and journal articles on all things climate adaptation

Trump Tariffs to Raise US Climate-Proofing Costs

Tariffs imposed on Canada and Mexico could make it more costly for the US to recover from climate shocks and adapt homes and businesses for more extreme weather.

On Saturday, President Trump ordered 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, with a partial carve out for Canadian energy products, and 10% tariffs on China, due to go into effect on Tuesday. Earlier Monday, Trump announced that tariffs on Mexico would be deferred by one month in response to that country’s promise to send 10,00 troops to the US border to engage in security and drug enforcement measures. As of the time of writing, there was no indication that tariffs on Canada or China would be similarly paused.

Canada has said it will retaliate initially with 25% tariffs on around US$20bn of American goods. China has said it is exploring unspecified countermeasures of its own.

Tariffs would raise the price of many goods crossing into the US, including the construction materials needed to rebuild properties razed by climate-related disasters, like the Los Angeles wildfires. “More than 70% of the imports of two essential materials that home builders rely on — softwood lumber and gypsum (used for drywall) — come from Canada and Mexico, respectively,” said Carl Harris, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), in a statement on Saturday.

Canada and Mexico also make up a hefty chunk of US steel imports. The cross-border trade between the US and Canada of this metal alone comes to around US$20bn, according to the Canadian Steel Producers Association.

Construction costs typically spike in the wake of a disaster.  In a December report, North Carolina’s government estimated that rebuilding expenses following Hurricane Helene would be 15% higher “due to a shortage of available construction services or an increase in the cost of raw material or labor.” Tariffs are likely to force these costs even higher.

Trump & Musk’s Assault on USAID Threatens Global Climate Resilience

The fate of USAID, America’s overseas development agency that provides millions for adaptation and resilience projects in the developing world, is in limbo following a chaotic weekend in which President Trump and Elon Musk took steps to illegally shutter the independent agency.

Earlier today, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he had been made Acting Administrator of USAID, only hours after Musk — the world’s richest man, close ally of President Trump, and head of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) — said on his social media platform X that Trump had signed off on it being shut down. On Sunday, he called USAID a “criminal organization”.  CBS News now reports that President Trump plans to merge USAID with the State Department.

USAID is an independent federal agency, first authorized by President John F Kennedy in 1961 and established as a standalone entity by Congress in 1998. No president can lawfully disband USAID unilaterally.

The attack on USAID follows a 90-day freeze on all foreign aid ordered by President Trump on January 20, which is already worsening humanitarian crises around the world and forcing climate adaptation and resilience projects to grind to a halt.

USAID spent US$38.1bn on foreign aid programs in 2023. Last year, the agency invested US$61mn in adaptation and resilience projects and had, in concert with the State Department, implemented a climate mitigation/adaptation strategy with 66 countries. USAID also oversaw former President Biden’s cross-agency, public-private PREPARE initiative, which disbursed U$3bn for adaptation and resilience worldwide in 2023.

In Brief

First Street, a climate risk data vendor, says that US$1.47trn in property value could be erased by 2055 because of climate risks. Analysis by the company estimates that some 55 million Americans will relocate to lower-risk areas over the next 30 years, leading to devaluations for 84% of current US neighborhoods. Higher insurance costs and changing consumer preferences are also driving population movements that will gather steam in the years ahead. (First Street)

Canada’s westernmost province, British Columbia, is investing over CAD$19mn (US$12.9mn) in 46 disaster-risk reduction and climate adaptation projects. The financing, made available via the Community Emergency Preparedness Fund (CEPF), is being parceled out across 39 communities to support flood-mitigation infrastructure, water supply resilience, and nature-based solutions to manage climate risks, among other things. The CEPF was first established in 2017. Since launch, it has provided some CAD$300mn (US$203mn) to local governments and First Nations across more than 2,100 projects. (British Columbia Government)

US Climate Resilience Efforts Caught in Funding Freeze Chaos

Hundreds of projects aimed at hardening the US against climate shocks are under threat following Trump orders on federal spending.

Last Monday, a White House memo called on agencies to temporarily pause all federal grants and loans. Though the order was stayed by a federal judge on Tuesday, and rescinded by the administration on Wednesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on X that Trump officials are still pursuing a freeze. 

The initial memo came with a list of 2,600 federal programs that the administration wants to review, including many financing climate adaptation and resilience projects. These include grid hardening efforts, spending on tribal resilience, and support for National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers.

Separately, an executive order signed by Trump on January 20 instructed agencies to freeze funds appropriated under the Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, two Biden-era laws that have awarded millions for adaptation and resilience projects. Leavitt’s X statement suggests this order remains in force, though its constitutionality is questionable given the funds had been authorized by Congress

New Zealand Greenlights Adaptation Framework

The New Zealand government pledged to introduce legislation this year to establish an Adaptation Framework to protect homes and businesses from climate impacts.

“[T]he new reality of climate change could impact the stability of our housing, finance and insurance markets,” the government wrote in response to a parliamentary committee on adaptation. “The Government intends to continue progressing policy development on an adaptation framework with cross-party support, to ensure New Zealand’s approach to adaptation is enduring.”

The Adaptation Framework aims to lower the long-term costs of climate-proofing New Zealand, maintain “efficient housing and insurance markets”, and give people the ability and incentive to take risk-reducing measures where they can. It also wants to offer property owners certainty on the type of help they can expect from the government. 

Insurers welcomed the commitment. “Research shows every dollar invested in adaptation brings substantial economic benefits. By addressing these risks now, New Zealand can avoid the higher costs associated with future climate-related disasters,” said Kris Faafoi, head of The Insurance Council of New Zealand.

In Brief

Oxford academics, in partnership with the UN Environment Programme, have published a new report outlining fiscal policies that can help close the financing gap for climate adaptation, particularly in infrastructure. It argues that adaptation is not a trade-off with growth but a strategy that can work hand-in-glove with economic stability and debt sustainability. Key recommendations include integrating adaptation into fiscal risk management, aligning public spending with resilience goals, leveraging public finance to mobilize private investment, and treating adaptation data as a public good. The report underscores that resilient infrastructure investments, though requiring only a 3% cost premium, yield a net benefit of $4.2 trillion. (University of Oxford Environmental Change Institute)

The new US Department of Transportation (DOT) Secretary, Sean Duffy, issued a memo last Wednesday instructing departmental staff to “identify and eliminate” nearly all programs concerning climate change, racial equity, gender identity, DEI, or environmental justice implemented during the Biden administration. The memo specifically canceled the Climate Change Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience Policy for DOT Operational Assets, as well as the department’s Equity Council and Actions to Address Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low-income Populations. The order is also likely to capture the department’s 2024-2027 Climate Adaptation Plan, issued last June, which was authorized by a series of Biden-era executive orders that have since been revoked by President Trump. (US Department of Transportation)

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) ordered officials to scrub climate references from public websites, according to internal emails seen by ABC News. Web managers have been told to categorize and either archive or unpublish materials mentioning climate change, with a deadline of last Friday. A page on ‘Climate Change Adaptation and the USDA’ is one resource that has now been removed from the live website. By censoring climate information in this way, the Trump administration threatens to make it harder for farmers and rural communities to tackle climate risks. (ABC News)

Google Spinout Offers AI-Powered Crop Resilience

AI startup Heritable Agriculture launched last week to help build more climate resilient food systems.

The company, which got its start at the Alphabet Moonshot Factory (X) tech incubator, has an AI-platform that can identify new ways to breed plants to perform better in climate-stressed environments and have improved nutrition, flavor, and disease resistance. The platform offers agriculture three key services: identifying important crop genes, designing edits to particular genes, and forecasting plant performance in specific contexts.

“Our AI-powered biotechnology platform has potential to address key challenges faced by the agriculture industry, including lowering the costs of crop improvement, boosting yields, enhancing disease resistance, and accelerating the development of new plant varieties,” said Brad Zamft, CEO and Co-Founder.

Heritable secured financing from FTW Ventures, Mythos Ventures, and both the Sunrise and Pioneer funds of SVG Ventures.

In Brief

Swedish startup Adsorbi has raised €1mn (US$1mn) to scale its cellulose-based air purification technology. The material developed by the company captures key pollutants like nitrogen oxides, acids, and aldehydes, and can be deployed in filters to produce clearer air for indoor spaces. Air quality concerns are on the rise as climate change worsens. Climate-related events like wildfires spew dangerous toxins in the atmosphere, while hot and stagnant air during heat waves increase the amount of ozone pollution and particulate pollution. (Adsorbi)

RESEARCH

Heat disproportionately kills young people: Evidence from wet-bulb temperature in Mexico (Science Advances)

A highly selective and energy efficient approach to boron removal overcomes the Achilles heel of seawater desalination (Nature Water)

Urology on a changing planet: links between climate change and urological disease (Nature Reviews Urology)

The Sikkim flood of October 2023: Drivers, causes and impacts of a multihazard cascade (Science)

Thanks for reading!

Louie Woodall
Editor