Adaptation's Promise for Private Equity, NOAA's Billion-Dollar Disasters Database Frozen, FloodTech Toolkits and More

Adaptation Market Could Hit $1.3trn by 2030, Temasek and BCG Say, Urging Private Equity to Act

Climate adaptation and resilience financing may grow to between US$0.5trn to US$1.3trn a year by 2030, a new study by Singapore investment company Temasek and consultancy BCG shows — making this a potentially lucrative opportunity for private equity and other investors.

The potential size of the market is estimated by quantifying the costs of climate inaction and evaluating the growing number of country-level adaptation plans and policies being implemented. “This will spawn new value pools and accelerate the expansion of existing markets, especially those in the supporting ecosystem of products and services,” the report reads.

However, it adds that money managers “have struggled to capitalize” on adaptation opportunities in a systematic way because of challenges identifying suitable solutions providers. To fix this, the report introduces a “Climate A&R Investment Opportunity Map” to guide investors, and particularly private equity firms, on the sectors and subsectors where adaptation solutions lie. 

BCG’s Climate Adaptation & Resilience Opportunity Map

The report says the most promising opportunities are in climate-adapted agricultural inputs, climate-resilient building materials, human-engineered flood defenses, active and passive cooling solutions, and climate intelligence — meaning software and analytics.

These subsectors are seeing a high level of investment activity and strong forward-looking demand signals from public and private sector entities. For example, the report says the climate intelligence market alone is projected to increase around 15% per annum over the next five years. Here, the climate risk analytics segment is seen as likely to grow the fastest, followed by the hazard warning subsector.

Private equity investors are well-placed to power the adaptation market, the report adds, because they typically have expertise in scaling businesses and enhancing their ability to create value. “By acting now, investors can help build a more resilient world while securing a stake in one of the defining markets of the future,” it reads. 

The Temasek and BCG report comes amidst a sudden rush of financial institutions opining on the possible size of the adaptation investment opportunity. In April, GIC — Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund — came out with its own data analysis, which projected revenues from adaptation solutions providers could quadruple to US$4trn a year by 2050. JP Morgan also recently unpacked an adaptation investment thesis and explored which companies are investing in climate-proofing measures. 

And just today (May 12), the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) published a study showing that over 2,100 companies generated US$1trn in revenue last year from climate adaptation-related products and services. This accounts for some 20% of the estimated US$5trn global green economy. 

LSEG says green buildings are the largest sector with exposure to adaptation solutions, with revenues of US$424 billion, followed by water infrastructure at US$94 billion. However, it adds that pureplay adaptation solutions addressing flooding and land erosion are much smaller, in the US$1bn to US$17bn range.

In Brief

The Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) has released four new short-term climate scenarios that banks, supervisors, and other institutions can use to estimate the economic and financial impacts of climate-related shocks through 2030. One physical risk-only scenario projects the impacts of extreme but plausible weather events. Two explore different transition risk pathways, while a fourth probes both transition and physical risks assuming large discrepancies across regions’ climate ambitions and major weather impacts in certain countries. Notably, the physical scenarios account for the impact of compound extreme climate events — meaning the simultaneous occurrences of floods, storms, heatwaves, droughts, and the like. This is a first for NGFS scenarios. The group says the new vintage is “particularly well-suited for climate stress-testing exercises and for analysing financial risks” in the near term. (NGFS)

The IMF has approved a new US$1.4bn climate resilience loan for Pakistan. The financing, arranged as part of the financial institution’s Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), will strengthen resilience against natural disasters and make efficient use of scarce water resources. It is also intended to improve coordination of natural disaster response and financing between central and provincial governments, and facilitate enhanced disclosure of climate-related risks by banks and corporates. (IMF)

US financial regulators are pushing to downgrade the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision’s flagship task force on climate-related financial risks, part of a broader effort by the Trump administration to weaken climate action. The move threatens to undermine the global regulatory panel’s efforts to coordinate financial regulation around climate issues, critics say. (Financial Times)

Microsoft co-founder and billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates has announced plans to give away virtually all his wealth via the Gates Foundation by 2045, including into projects that support global health and climate-resilient agriculture. In the May 8 statement, Gates said he expects the foundation to spend US$200bn over the next 20 years, double the amount made over its first 20 years in operation. (Gates Foundation)

California’s Cap-and-Trade Program, which forces polluters to pay to emit greenhouse gases, has generated nearly US$33bn to fund climate solutions statewide, according to a new report from the California Air Resources Board. These include projects supporting tribal land stewardship and wildfire resilience in the North Coast, nature-based solutions, and coastal resilience planning. (California Air Resources Board)

Climate risk analytics company Jupiter Intelligence warns that the US housing market may be sitting on a US$389bn climate “bubble”, as wildfire and wind risks remain drastically underpriced in insurance premiums and home values. Using forward-looking models, Jupiter shows that climate change is driving up insurance costs by as much as 62% in high-risk areas. The impacts are concentrated in especially vulnerable regions of the country, including Southern California and Florida. Jupiter warns that without urgent reforms to risk modeling and the implementation of adaptation strategies, the housing market could face sharp corrections. (Jupiter Intelligence)

The Canadian province of British Columbia is investing over CAD$40mn (US$29mn) in 61 local climate resilience projects, designed to safeguard populations from flooding, drought, and other disasters. The funding is being made available jointly through the province’s new Disaster Resilience and Innovation Funding (DRIF) program and the Community Emergency Preparedness Fund. The cash will back First Nations and local governments in advancing disaster risk management. (British Columbia)

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is extending up to €65mn (US$73mn) to Moroccan bank BCMI to support climate adaptation and mitigation investments by companies in the African nation. The financing is being supported by the European Union, the Green Climate Fund, and Canada. As part of the package BCMI will also receive technical assistance and investment incentives. (EBRD)

Ten ASEAN nations together with Japan, China, and South Korea have agreed to launch a new rapid financing facility to strengthen regional resilience to climate disasters and pandemics. The facility, part of a US$240bn pool of foreign exchange reserves known as the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (CMIM), will provide member countries with access to emergency funds to avert shock-driven financial crises. (Reuters)

At the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) 58th Annual Meeting last week, Italy’s international development bank — Cassa Depositi e Prestiti (CDP) — signed two new agreements to boost climate and energy cooperation in Asia. One with ADB outlines co-financing for projects on climate resilience, biodiversity, promoting food system sustainability and natural resource management, and supporting biodiversity protection. The other with Indonesia’s state utility PLN targets energy transition investments under Just Energy Transition Partnerships. (CDP)

NOAA Halts Tracking of Billion-Dollar Disasters

America’s top climate and weather agency will no longer track billion-dollar climate disasters, another sign that the federal government is abandoning its role as a public source of climate risk information.

As of May 8, the Billion Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters webpage hosted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has a banner stating that it will no longer be updated “in alignment with evolving priorities, statutory mandates, and staffing changes.” It adds that past reports and their underlying data are archived and available via the Billion-Dollar Disasters dataset landing page. 

Last year, the popular webpage tracked 27 US extreme weather and climate disasters where losses exceeded US$1bn — including Hurricane Milton, which caused over US$34bn in damages, and Hurricane Helene, which inflicted some US$79bn. Smaller, but still financially damaging, events were also captured, like last summer’s hail storms in Colorado and a tornado outbreak that tore through southern states last April.

NOAA’s Billion-Dollar Disaster Events Dataset (Time Series View)

“NOAA’s billion-dollar disaster database is the gold standard for tracking the real costs of natural disasters,” former Deputy NOAA Administrator Jainey Bavishi told Climate Proof. “Scrapping it now is a politically convenient blackout — if we can’t measure the damage, we can’t hold anyone accountable. And without data, there’s no way to build true resilience,” she added.

The dataset freeze is just the latest in a string of climate data rollbacks at NOAA. The agency also recently retired the web portal for its Global Ocean Currents Database, decommissioned its Shoreline/Coastline Resources webpage, and shuttered its Coastal Ecosystems Maps. 

Moreover, the agency has a reduced capacity to gather and analyze climate data given deep cuts to its personnel and budget. Layoffs and voluntary buyouts have reduced NOAA’s headcount by over 2,000 since January. A draft budget proposal from the Trump administration calls for the agency’s budget to be slashed by US$1.5bn — a cut that may force the closure of NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, which houses its climate research efforts.

In Brief

The fourth Copenhagen Climate Ministerial last week saw over 30 climate leaders gather to shape the agenda for the upcoming COP30 summit in Brazil. The talks — a series of informal ministerial meetings backed by the UN — saw leaders talk about the need to advance climate finance and push for a just transition. On adaptation, leaders spoke about the importance of finalizing the Global Goal on Adaptation, while developing country ministers pushed for specific financing allocations for climate adaptation and loss and damage. (E3G)

The US is pushing to water down a draft UN agreement aimed at overhauling the international financial system to better support poor countries dealing with climate shocks and other challenges. A leaked negotiating text, seen by Reuters, shows the US is against a commitment that would see countries receive “adequate and uninterrupted funding on appropriate terms of social protection and other essential social spending during shocks and crises.” It is also opposed to reforms that advance sustainable development, and wants to change a line pledging to “commit to reform the international financial architecture” with a promise to “recognize the need to enhance its resilience and effectiveness in responding to present and future challenges and crises.”  The draft agreement will be haggled over at the 4th International Conference on Financing for Development (FFD4), which is taking place this June in Seville, Spain. The summit will shape how the world’s development finance institutions address social and environmental challenges for the next decade. (Reuters)

The acting head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Cameron Hamilton, was abruptly fired last Thursday and replaced by an appointee with no prior disaster response experience. Hamilton was reportedly dismissed for clashing with the Trump administration’s views on eliminating FEMA. His replacement, David Richardson, served in the US Marine Corps. He reportedly said he will personally make all decisions at the agency, including those related to disaster payments. (Politico)

West Virginia’s Attorney General is leading a 24-state coalition in a legal challenge against Vermont’s new Climate Superfund Act, which seeks to make fossil fuel companies pay for climate adaptation projects. The coalition argues the law is unconstitutional and threatens US energy independence by allegedly trying to drive domestic producers out of business. The state-level effort is mirrored by a similar lawsuit filed on May 1 by the US Department of Justice against Vermont and New York, which also has a Superfund law on the books. (Office of the West Virginia Attorney General)

The state of Maine has released its first statewide Infrastructure Resilience Plan, produced in the wake of back-to-back storms that caused US$90mn in damage. Led by Governor Mills and the 24-member Infrastructure Rebuilding and Resilience Commission, the plan outlines 50 actions to help communities prepare for more frequent and intense storms, including investments in infrastructure, emergency response, and long-term resilience. (Governor Janet Mills)

Germany’s development agency has launched a newly rebranded Climate Adaptation Business Alliance (CABA), an initiative for spurring scalable, climate-resilient solutions across Africa. The Alliance is being led by Nigeria-based Executive Director Suleiman Dikwa. (EnviroNews Nigeria)

FloodTech Companies Flex Mapping Muscles

Two climate tech companies have launched new tools for evaluating flood-driven financial losses in the US and Canada.

UK-based Fathom released a US Flood Risk Index, which offers state-by-state insights on current and projected future flood losses. This covers annual average loss (AAL), a financial metric used by insurers, plus the amount of each state’s population and infrastructure at risk. Total AAL is projected to reach US$38.9bn by 2050, around 28% higher than it is now.

The Index also highlights the amount of actual and future-expected losses that are outside Special Flood Hazard Areas designated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Properties in these zones are subject to floodplain management regulations and have to take out dedicated flood insurance. Fathom says an average of 60% of AAL in each state occurs outside these zones, which suggests many homeowners and businesses may be underinsured and at risk.

Fathom US Flood Risk Index (New York State)

Separately, US-based True Flood Risk debuted Canada’s first national foundational dataset for structural elevation, which provides essential information on property-level flood risk. The dataset includes First Floor Height (FFH) and corresponding First Floor Elevation (FFE) data, both of which are valuable to insurers, property developers, and governments when it comes to gauging the exposure of homes and offices to flood risk. Generally, the higher the FFH, the lower the flood risk and potential damage. The company published a similar foundational dataset for the US in 2019.

Shelly Klose, CEO and Founder of True Flood Risk, said the latest dataset “gives decision-makers the clarity to quantify exposure, prioritize investments, and strengthen protection for communities and critical infrastructure.”

In Brief

A team at Canada’s McGill University has launched SUSANHub.com — a global platform that is now preserving climate data at risk from the Trump administration. The site serves as a digital refuge for endangered datasets on topics like wildfires, agriculture, and emissions. McGill says it has been attracting 39,000 weekly visits from academics and researchers. (The Canadian Press)

US electric utility giant Exelon has opened applications for its 2026 Climate Change Investment Initiative (2c2i), offering funding to startups advancing clean energy and climate adaptation solutions in its service areas. The program, first launched in 2019, has already backed 34 companies — including those focused on advanced weather forecasting and grid hardening. Applications are open through September 15. (Exelon)

Climate Adaptive Infrastructure, a US clean energy infrastructure investor, and water company Veolia are partnering on a US$66mn wastewater processing and reuse plant for a US semiconductor manufacturer. Using efficient water treatment and reuse strategies, the facility will recycle 2.1 million gallons of water daily, helping to lower costs to the manufacturer while shrinking their environmental footprint. Climate Adaptive Infrastructure is structuring the deal as a “water-as-a-service” contract, whereby clients outsource the financing, design, installation, and servicing of water facilities to the firm and its partners in exchange for a stream of payments. (Climate Adaptive Infrastructure)

RESEARCH

Global emergence of unprecedented lifetime exposure to climate extremes (Nature)

Anthropogenic climate change contributes to wildfire particulate matter and related mortality in the United States (Communications Earth & Environment)

A half-century of climate change in major agricultural regions: Trends, impacts, and surprises (PNAS)

Storylines reveal contrasting thermodynamic effects of climate change on 2020/21 East Asian cold extremes (npj Climate and Atmospheric Science)

Developing an ensemble machine learning framework for enhanced climate projections using CMIP6 data in the Middle East (npj Climate and Atmospheric Science)

Hong Kong SAR’s Economy in the Face of Climate Change: Risks and Prospects (International Monetary Fund)

Climate change-driven geographical shifts in Aspergillus species habitat and the implications for plant and human health (Research Square)

Pathways towards resilience in 2025 (E3G)

Safeguarding Home Insurance: Reducing exposure and vulnerability to extreme weather (Geneva Association)

Thanks for reading!

Louie Woodall
Editor